Italy v England predictions: Jones' much-changed side look far too strong

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for Italy v England in the Six Nations.

Where to watch

ITV, 3pm Sunday

Best bet

England -25
2pts Evs Coral

Match preview

Italy were looking for a turnaround in their Six Nations fortunes as they entered the tournament on a run of 32 defeats, but there was something depressingly familiar for the Azzurri in their opening loss to France.

It wasn't just the defeat, it was the pattern of the game, as they started brightly, scored the opening try, trailed just 18-10 at the break, but then failed to add another point and went down 37-10.

They'd been there before. In their last match of the 2021 campaign against Scotland, Italy scored the opening try, trailed 24-10 at half-time, and then didn't add to their score in a 52-10 defeat.

Against Ireland two rounds earlier before, they managed the same feat of ten points in the first half and none in the second. But it's against England in Rome that the Italians' record of second-half misery is most marked.

In their last five trips to the Stadio Olimpico, England have conceded 55 points - 42 in the first half and 13 in the second, and they have shut out the Azzurri twice after the break.

As a result England have covered the handicap in three of their last four visits - last year they fell one-point short of a 30-point line in a 34-5 defeat. The one try they conceded came in the first half.

But the last four England wins have been by margins of 29, 31, 31, and 41 points and a more modest line of 25 points looks within their reach.

Coach Eddie Jones has made eight changes to the side who lost to Scotland last week, including a start for scrum-half Harry Randall, but the upshot is that there is significant experience on the bench ready to come on in a time of the game when they could do most damage.

This is another chance for fly-half Marcus Smith to show his creative skills and the open spaces of the Stadio Olimpico pitch should bring out the best in him to get the England backline moving.

But just as crucial to England's chances of covering the handicap is Italy's lack of scoring power.

They produced their biggest match total in last year's tournament in their 41-18 defeat to England and it's 15 matches since they passed the 20-point mark.

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