Ireland v Italy predictions: Ireland set for big home win

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for Ireland v Italy in the Six Nations.

Where to watch

ITV & Virgin Media One, 3pm Sunday

Best bet

Ireland -38
2pts Evs bet365

Match preview

When Italy famously beat Ireland in Rome in the 2013 Six Nations, it was to prove a turning point, but not the sort that the Azzurri wanted. Since then Ireland have stepped on the gas in this fixture, especially in Dublin, and another big home win looks on the cards.

Certainly when Ireland got their first crack at revenge they made no mistake, winning 46-7 in Dublin the following year, and in three subsequent encounters at the Aviva Stadium Ireland have hit the 50-point mark every time.

Indeed, up until that 2013 watershed Ireland’s seven Six Nations home matches against Italy brought wins by an average margin of 21 points, with 3.4 tries scored per game. Since then, the average margin in their four wins has been 38 points and the try average has shot up to 7.75 per game.

Added to that, Ireland have found a ruthless streak over the last year, racking up 71 points against the USA in the summer, 60 against Japan in the autumn and 53 against Argentina two weeks later. And don't forget Leinster, who supply ten players from the starting 15 on Sunday, began the year with victories by 89-7 and 64-7 in Europe. Scoring big is nothing new for this group of players.

For Italy, the complete opposite has been the case. The Azzurri have failed to reach the 20-point mark in their last 16 games, averaging less than 11 points per game, and have not scored a point in their last 130 minutes of rugby.

Just two of the Azzurri starting line-up have more than 20 caps and their defence looked all at sea against England last week, leaving Eddie Jones to rue some missed opportunities.

Ireland have looked sharp and clinical and are unlikely to pass up as many chances. Coach Andy Farrell has made a few changes, bringing in full-back Michael Lowry for his debut plus fit-again winger James Lowe, but they form an exciting back three along with Mack Hansen.

Jonny Sexton starts on the bench but the fly-half is sure to get plenty of time in the second half given next week's huge clash at Twickenham, and that could be when the hosts pull away.

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport