France v Wales: Six Nations predictions and rugby union tips

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for France v Wales in the Six Nations on Saturday.

Where to watch

BBC1 & S4C, 8pm Saturday

Best bet

Wales +8
3pts Evs general

Match preview

Only France and Wales can win the Six Nations title - the difference is that Les Bleus need to win two games in six days while Wales are in the final straight, and given the efforts the Welsh have put in so far, it’s hard to believe they won’t empty the tank at the Stade de France.

France will be hugely disappointed they aren’t tilting for a Grand Slam of their own after their spirited performance against England at Twickenham last week, when they led for the majority of the game but were beaten by a try five minutes from the end.

Les Bleus are strong favourites to deny Wales a Slam but they must be strapping themselves in for another scrap against a team who have proved time and again such obdurate opponents and are at their best when their tails are up.

Last year’s Six Nations clash in Cardiff was just another in a long line of close affairs - France triumphed 27-24, and they were far more convincing in an October showdown in Paris, winning 38-21.

Those defeats were all packaged up as part of Wales’s shaky first year under new coach Wayne Pivac, but the turnaround in performance from the same set of players has been marked and the coach knows he can rely on the same core group who have been in this situation before and have proved they can handle it.

Wales have won three of their last four Six Nations matches in Paris - the exception was the 100-minute game in 2017 - and also edged Les Bleus 20-19 in the quarter-final of the 2019 Rugby World Cup.

The first Paris victory in that sequence came in 2013 when Wales started the tournament in a similar position to this year, with confidence low and little belief from outside the camp that they would make an impression on the tournament.

An opening defeat to Ireland was followed by an ugly 16-6 win in France that set them up for an amazing title triumph sealed by a demolition of England. Five of the starting players that day - Jonathan Davies, George North, Dan Biggar, Taupule Faletau and Justin Tipuric - are still in the side, while eight of the starting 15 who recorded a record fightback to win 24-19 in 2019 also line up on Saturday.

France have a young team bursting with talent, but they will be left with questions to answer after last week’s disappointment. An eight-point handicap looks too big, and while it may be tempting to side with the hosts to edge a narrow win, this Wales side have shown time and again the ability to dig out results and their belief looks unshakeable.

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