France v Italy predictions: Weather could keep scores down in Paris

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for France v Italy in the Six Nations.

Where to watch

ITV & RTE2, 3pm Sunday

Best bet

Under 53.5 points
3pts 5-6 Paddy Power

Match preview

What should have been a comfortable opener for Six Nations favourites France looked like becoming a headache after a Covid outbreak in the camp.

But key players have recovered in time and Les Bleus have named a starting line-up featuring 13 of the 15 who beat New Zealand in the autumn.

Head coach Fabien Galthie will be missing but the big news is that scrum-half Antoine Dupont, World Rugby player of the year in 2021, is available to captain the team having initially withdrawn from the squad.

The key obstacle between France and a big opening win may not be opponents Italy, who are on a 32-match losing run in the Six Nations and field an inexperienced side, but the weather.

Rain and strong, gusting winds are forecast which would hamper France's open style of play. Four French players were in the top six for most offloads in last year's tournament and Les Bleus have scored 35 tries over the last two competitions, more than any other team.

The Italian defence can at least hope they won't face the full range of French flamboyance and trickery. However, what they will come up against is a fearsomely powerful pack.

New Azzurri coach Kieran Crowley has suggested a return to traditional strengths of set-piece and maul. They look second-best by some distance.

The oddsmakers ask France to give up a handicap in the mid-30s, the highest Les Bleus have been rated in this fixture for 18 years, but they have covered the line just twice in 11 Paris Six Nations showdowns.

However, the points market may be the one to focus on, as even if France reach a score that could see them over the handicap line, they look unlikely to face much of a response from the visitors.

Italy have racked up 22, 17 and 21 points in their last three visits to Paris but this is a much less experienced team - only four of the starting line-up have more than 20 caps - and the conditions will be the same for both teams.

Paddy Power set their line at 53.5, a mark that has been passed twice in the last ten Paris showdowns.

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