France v Scotland: Six Nations predictions and rugby union tips

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for France v Scotland in the Six Nations on Friday.

Where to watch

BBC1 & S4C, 8pm Friday

Best bets

Under 25.5 first-half points
3pts 10-11 Paddy Power

France to win by 11 to 20 points
1pt 11-4 Betfair, Paddy Power

Match preview

France are aiming to claim their first Six Nations title since 2010, but to do that they must achieve something else they have not managed in more than a decade - win a home Six Nations match by more than 20 points.

On top of that they need to score four tries to claim a bonus-point win and having to juggle those two targets makes for a tricky game plan. Les Bleus know that at first-hand, having been the party-poopers at Twickenham in 2015 when England needed to beat them by 26 points to secure the title. England chalked up 55 points, but it turned into such a helter-skelter match that France hit back with 35 of their own to deny the hosts.

It’s probably easier to target a 21-0 victory than run up 50 points and hope to keep the opposition below 30, but at some point France will need to open up and that is when Scotland will be at their most dangerous.

France left it late against Wales last week, when they also needed to score four tries and grabbed two in the final six minutes with a man advantage.

That was the sixth time in 13 games under Fabien Galthie that France have reached four tries - they have also done it three times against Italy plus against Ireland and Wales last autumn.

But France also conceded twice in the first 20 minutes and after that experience defence coach Shaun Edwards is sure to have been hard at work this week putting an emphasis on keeping a tight lid on the early exchanges to avoid the need for another late surge.

Les Bleus can point to a 32-3 World Cup warm-up win against Scotland in Nice in 2019 but when it comes to competitive matches Scotland have been far from a pushover.

Scotland haven’t won in Paris since 1999, but of their last seven defeats there in all competitions, five have been by a single-figure margin, while the other two have been by 17 (most recently in 2019) and 13 points. You have to go back to 2007 for the last time France recorded a victory of the magnitude they need on Friday.

After ringing the changes against Italy last week, Scotland have first-choice half-backs Ali Price and Finn Russell back and they will be well rested and under little pressure against a France side who will have been heavily emotionally invested in last week’s fightback win.

It’s hard to see the Scots springing the kind of shock they did in round one at Twickenham, but they can do enough to deny France the margin of victory they need and a home win by 11 to 20 points looks a more likely outcome.

An even better bet may be that the France defence look to stamp their authority early on and show the patience to ensure a low-scoring half and a platform to turn the screw later.

Not got a Paddy Power account? Sign up and get up to £50 in free sports bets

Place a single £10 Sportsbook bet and get money back as a free bet if it loses. There are x5 Free Bets available. Max refund per qualifying bet is £10. Only deposits made via Credit/Debit Card will be eligible for the promotion. Paddy's Rewards Club: Get a £10 free bet when you place 5x bets of £10+. T&Cs apply 18+ begambleaware.org

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport