France v Ireland predictions: Hosts can edge crucial Paris tussle

Free rugby union tips, best bets and analysis for France v Ireland in the Six Nations on Saturday.

Where to watch

ITV & Virgin Media One, 4.45pm Saturday

Best bet

France to win by one to 12 points
2pts 13-8 Betfred

Match preview

France and Ireland were the sides who caught the eye in round one of the Six Nations and they were virtually neck and neck in the title betting after the weekend games, but one piece of team news has made it advantage France.

Ireland fly-half Jonathan Sexton has been ruled out of Saturday's clash in Paris which had been billed as a title-decider, and if one single absence can have an effect on a game then it is this one.

Just a year ago Ireland were pilloried for their lack of attacking invention but nine consecutive victories, including wins over England and New Zealand, have turned things on their head and last week's win over Wales showed the Irish at their fluent best.

They played at pace, recycling and moving the ball quickly with waves of attacking players making looping runs to vary the point of attack and keep the opposition defence guessing.

That gameplan looked tailor-made for taking on France, a big, bulky side who in the past have struggled to keep their shape against teams who move the ball quickly.

But the plan also looked heavily reliant on Sexton, who has been the heartbeat of the side for years.

In his absence Munster's Joey Carbery steps up to start, and he has established himself as Andy Farrell's preferred back-up. Carbery started both summer Tests while Sexton was away with the Lions, closed out the win over the All Blacks and also came on just after the hour mark against Wales.

But the 18 minutes he played last weekend were his first since he picked up an injury in December and he is coming in cold to a hugely important role.

One player shouldn't make all the difference but the change at fly-half is a definite swing in France's favour in a fixture which has been all about fine margins for more than a decade.

Since 2011 the teams have met 11 times in the Six Nations. France have won four times, including the last two, Ireland five and there have been two draws. None of the games has been won by a margin of more than 12 points.

It looks set to be just as tight again but at a hostile Stade de France and against a powerful French pack, Ireland need their attack fit and firing, and they look set to fall just short.

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport