England v Italy predictions and Six Nations rugby union tips

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for England v Italy in the Six Nations on Saturday.

Where to watch

ITV, 2.15pm Saturday

Best bets

England to win by 31 to 40 points
2pts 3-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

L Cowan Dickie first tryscorer
0.5pt each-way 7-1Betfair, Paddy Power

Match preview

England lost their opening match in last year's Six Nations and went on to lift the trophy, but a lot more alarm bells have been ringing following last week's 11-6 home defeat to Scotland.

The historic Twickenham win was well deserved by the Scots, but England were also poor, lacking ideas and guilty of basic errors.

Coach Eddie Jones said he would stick with captain Owen Farrell but has shifted the Saracens man from fly-half to inside centre, going back to his more usual selection of George Ford at number ten.

The other big change is in the pack, where props Mako Vunipola and Kyle Sinckler return, while Courtney Lawes steps up from the bench to start in the back row.

On the face of it those switches make England more powerful up front and increase the playmaking options behind the scrum to set up their attack.

And that could spell bad news for Italy, who shipped seven tries and 50 points at home to France in round one.

Azzurri coach Franco Smith has brought back Carlo Canna at centre and prop Andrea Lovotti to provide a stronger spine, but Italy know they face a huge threat of a backlash from England's defeat.

The handicap has been set at 39 points, a bigger mark than England have been asked to cover in seven of their last eight meetings. Italy's last Six Nations visit to Twickenham in 2019 ended in a 57-14 defeat but in all only three of the ten stagings of this fixture have ended with a victory by 40 points or more.

England have also been handicap losers in eight of their last 12 tournament matches at Twickenham, but it's hard to put faith in Italy holding out with a start at odds-on.

So in the anticipation that if England fall short it's unlikely to be by much, a win by 31 to 40 points at 3-1 appeals far more.

Another change to the England front row sees Luke Cowan-Dickie come in at hooker for Jamie George. The Exeter man has seven England tries to his name including against Ireland in the Six Nations last year and a last-minute effort in the Autumn Nations Cup final against France.

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