England v Italy predictions and rugby union tips: England have the right mix to rack up a big score

Where to watch

ITV, 3pm Sunday

Best bet

Over 37.5 England points
2pts 20-23 Betfair

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Match preview 

After a losing start to their Six Nations campaign England face the double-edged sword of a home match against the tournament's weakest team, Italy.

England have never lost to the Azzurri, and despite their current low ebb it's hard to imagine that record will come to an end. But there's still plenty that can go wrong and it will need a truly convincing performance to tilt the balance of criticism the side have faced.

Two years ago, when the Azzurri last ran out at Twickenham, they were given a handicap of 38 points but Sunday's line is around half that mark. England can be backed at evens giving up 19 points, a line they have passed in the last four home meetings, and in six of the last seven.

More than a convincing win, though, England fans will want to see a positive attacking display and that part of their game looked in good shape in last week's defeat to Scotland.

Head coach Steve Borthwick's big move this week has been to break up the dual-playmaker set-up of Marcus Smith at fly-half with Owen Farrell at inside centre. Farrell starts at ten with Smith on the bench, and a midfield of Henry Slade and Ollie Lawrence looks to have a good blend of power and creativity.

The back three of Freddie Steward, Ollie Hassell Collins and Max Malins, who scored two of England's three tries last week, remains unchanged and with Smith and his box of tricks likely to be introduced in the second half the signs are that England can run in a big score.

England have scored at least five tries in each of their last nine meetings with Italy for a total of 54 and have passed the 40-point mark in three of the last four Twickenham so Betfair's line of 37.5 looks well within their grasp.

If England can reach 40 points it would leave Italy needing at least 20 to stay within the handicap, a total they have reached just once in 11 Six Nations outings at Twickenham, and that was in an 80-23 defeat in 2001.

The Azzurri beat Wales 22-21 in their last Six Nations away match but have not scored more than 22 points on the road since a shock 37-17 victory over Scotland in 2007, a run of 38 games.

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