England v France: Six Nations predictions and rugby union tips

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for England v France in the Six Nations on Saturday.

Where to watch

ITV, 4.45 pm Saturday

Best bet

France +2
3pts Evs Betfair, Paddy Power

France to win by one to ten points
1pt 11-5 Betfair, Paddy Power

Match preview

Just as England coach Eddie Jones is coming under fire for picking players on their past performances rather than current form, the case for backing England to beat France on Saturday rests on history and not the here and now.

Les Bleus last lowered England's colours at Twickenham in 2005 by a single point, booting their way to an 18-17 victory having trailed 17-3 at half-time.

Away wins have proved hard to come by for France in the tournament. But as head coach Fabien Galthie has set out to defy the old image of inconsistent unreliable France, success on the road has been a key factor, and that could be underlined with victory over England.

France's decline on the world stage started after their defeat in the 2011 Rugby World Cup final, and in the rest of that decade they won just five of 20 Six Nations away matches, all against Scotland or Italy.

Under Galthie last year they won in Wales for the first time since 2008, ran England close at Twickenham in the Autumn Nations Cup final before losing in extra time, and then last month they beat Ireland in Dublin for the first time in a decade.

There are still negatives for France to overcome, not least that they haven't been in action since that win over Ireland a month ago and that they will be up against an England team fired up more than ever following their defeat to Wales in round three.

The determination in the England camp to silence the critics will be huge, and the team can still feel rightly aggrieved at refereeing decisions that went Wales's way in Cardiff.

But it would be wrong to say the referee's intervention lost them that game and there are key elements to England's game that need to be addressed.

Discipline has to be top of the list - they have conceded 41 penalties in their three matches, the joint-highest tally in the tournament alongside Italy - and the big French pack will go all out to pin the hosts down in the tackle and breakdown area.

There has also been a serious lack of attacking intent from England, whose reliance on their kicking game has made them look ponderous and predictable. Just ten offloads and 16 line breaks in three matches puts them pretty much bottom of the stats pile, while France have recorded figures of 21 and 15 having played one game fewer.

England look set to continue with their kicking game but France, with Brice Dulin again lining up at full-back, have the back three to cope with that, and the attacking weapons to make the best of any ball that's kicked their way.

France are narrow odds-against shots for victory but the best approach may be to take them at evens with a two-point start then back a win by one to ten points - their last seven away wins in the tournament against teams other than Italy have all been by a single-figure margin.

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