England v France predictions and rugby union tips: Tenth time lucky for Les Bleus

Marcus Smith starts at fly-half for England

Where to watch England v France

ITV1, 4.45pm Saturday

Best bet

France to win by one to 12 points
2pts 6-4 bet365

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England v France predictions 

France have reinvented themselves under coach Fabien Galthie since the last Rugby World Cup, going from mercurial, inconsistent under-achievers to Grand Slam champions, but there's still something left to tick off.

Les Bleus haven't won at Twickenham since 2007 - and that was a World Cup warm-up game. Their last competitive success was two years earlier in the Six Nations and France have come away empty-handed from their last nine visits.

But the key contests to focus on are the two most recent, with Galthie at the helm, and the signs are there that France are building for that breakthrough win.

In December 2020 the teams met in the final of the Autumn Nations Cup and France, forced to field a second-string side, were 17-point underdogs. Yet England needed an 80th-minute try to level the scores before winning with a penalty in extra time. A year later in the Six Nations England were the narrowest of favourites but trailed at the break and needed another late try - by Maro Itoje four minutes from time - to edge a 23-20 success.

Last year a 25-12 success in Paris sealed a first title and first Slam for 12 years for France, but they weren't done there, going unbeaten for the rest of the year including a victory over world champions South Africa.

Les Bleus and Galthie are patiently building for their home World Cup in the autumn, and are vying for favouritism with New Zealand. Defeat to world number one side Ireland in Dublin last month can be overlooked but two defeats would be a setback and France are sure to be fully focused on putting right their Twickenham record.

France are clearly further down the line in terms of hitting their peak this year, but England are also moving forward after a losing start under Steve Borthwick and this fixture sees another new step as Marcus Smith starts at fly-half with skipper Owen Farrell benched.

England have looked brighter in attack with Smith at ten, while Farrell was off his kicking game two weeks ago in the victory over Wales. With a settled midfield combination of Henry Slade and Ollie Lawrence, England ought to put on a more creative attacking display.

But they are up against a formidable French outfit who have made the most significant progress in the last three years in their defensive organisation and discipline. They haven't been at their best yet at this tournament - a rusty outing in Italy was followed by defeat to tournament favourites Ireland, while two early red cards made their most recent match against Scotland more chaotic than might have been expected.

But the intent and the focus has been there from France throughout the last year and more, and while this looks sure to be a tight contest, France can live up to their bill as favourites. Only one of the last ten meetings between the two has been settled by more than 12 points and a narrow away win looks the best bet.

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