2022 Six Nations predictions, rugby union tips and odds: Ireland set to prevail

Last year’s Six Nations was the perfect illustration of just how tight the tournament is and how fine the margins are.

Winners Wales were sent off 16-1 shots after a poor 2020 campaign, 6-5 favourites England finished fifth, while the three teams who finished between the pair ended up with identical records of three wins and two defeats.

Of the ten games not involving Italy, eight were settled by margins of five points or fewer, and punters backing the underdog on the handicap would have banked eight winners from ten matches.

That might act as a warning to steer away from the favourites, but this year’s market-leaders France tick a lot of boxes, while preparation and progress through the tournament could be the key factor in deciding the outcome.

Best bets

Ireland to win Six Nations
3pts 11-4 general

Scotland to finish second
1pts 8-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Ireland-Scotland straight forecast
1pt 33-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

France 6-4

Victory over the All Blacks put a fitting end to a successful year for Les Bleus, who were title contenders for the 2021 Six Nations right up until the final minutes of their last match.

Their defeat to Scotland in that decisive game might be taken as another sign of French flakiness, but overall the hallmark of the coaching axis of Fabien Galthie and Shaun Edwards has been one of greater consistency.

They played a fiercely contested summer series in Australia while other nations’ players were occupied with the Lions tour, and they carried that into a successful autumn.

France’s other defeat in last year’s tournament was a two-point reverse at Twickenham and they have the advantage of home clashes with the two key title contenders Ireland and England.

But there have been disruptions - main man Antoine Dupont has been injured and seen little game time, and his planned return has been held up by a Covid outbreak this week.

France open their campaign against Italy and while a reshuffled team should navigate that easily enough, next up it’s a six-day turnaround to Ireland and they could be caught cold.

Ireland 11-4

Like France, Ireland recorded a famous win over New Zealand in the autumn, hence their position as second-favourites despite a fixture list featuring away matches against key rivals France and England.

Head coach Andy Farrell has seemingly won over the many critics who were lining up last year to criticise Ireland’s ponderous and cautious style of play.

This year they look ready to hit the ground running and play with pace and ambition, just as Leinster have done in Europe.

They boast a fully-fit squad and plenty of depth, and the high number of Leinster players in the starting line-up gives them great cohesion and continuity.

A home opener against injury-hit Wales gives them the chance for a strong start, and Ireland will surely be fired by a sense of injustice after they were leading in Cardiff last year but lost after being reduced to 14 men.

England 3-1

The squad that traditionally boasts the greatest depth in the tournament looks set to be tested to the full as a host of key players are unavailable.

Captain Owen Farrell will miss the whole tournament, and while Marcus Smith has shown himself ready to step up whenever he’s been challenged, the whole backline could be so unfamiliar that it’s hard to be confident of their attacking threat, especially in their tricky opener at Murrayfield.

Jonny May, Manu Tuilagi and Anthony Watson are out, Jonny Hill and Courtney Lawes look set to miss out up front, and coach Eddie Jones has been happy to talk about this campaign being a “regeneration” of his team in time for the World Cup.

It may well prove to be a worthwhile campaign in that respect but England may well lack the consistency to put in five winning performances.

Scotland 11-1

Scotland have won three matches in four of the previous five years, and four wins is often enough for the title, yet so often that final step proves the hardest one to take.

They saw off both England and France last year, and over the two-year cycle they have won six of ten games, with their defeats coming by seven points twice, by one and by three.

A backline starring Stuart Hogg and Duhan van der Merwe, the top tryscorer in last year’s Six Nations, has been augmented by the promising Kyle Steyn and Rufus McLean, and is marshalled by the world-class Finn Russell, so there is always danger when they play, and their back row’s performance at the breakdown has been key in Scotland's big wins.

If there is a weakness it looks to be in the front five and set-piece, but everything sets up so well for Scotland this year, with a settled squad, no injury concerns and a strong chance of a winning start against unsettled England.

Wales 16-1

This time last year Wales looked out of the running. Just three wins from ten in 2020 - against Italy twice plus tier-two Georgia, a raft of injuries and a coach still looking to make his mark were a recipe for failure.

Of course, the 16-1 shots ended up with the trophy but it was far from plain sailing. Wales were trailing at home to Ireland for an hour in their opener despite playing 14 men from the 14-minute mark, they were behind at half-time the following week in Scotland and won by a point after their opponents again saw a red card, and although their victory over England in week three was deserved, referee Pascal Gauzere later apologised for crucial decisions in the build-up to the first two Welsh tries.

Every team needs a slice of luck and Wales got theirs, but they are hard hit by injuries again this year, and trips to Ireland and England in their first three rounds mean the Welsh are likely to find it hard to get on the kind of roll that has carried them to title triumphs in previous years.

Italy 1,000-1

Italy’s credibility as Six Nations competitors has come under increasing scrutiny after six winless campaigns. It may be no coincidence that it is five years since bonus points were introduced - up until the end of the 2016 Six Nations campaign Italy’s average Six Nations margin was -18 points, since then it has been -23 points.

There’s no mercy now that try bonus points are available and points difference is increasingly a decisive factor, and the Azzurri aren’t helped by having a young, inexperienced squad.

Long-time captain Sergio Parisse is gone, only seven of the squad members have more than 20 caps, and although Benetton, who provide the bulk of the side, have had a better United Rugby Championship campaign, it’s hard to see their long losing run coming to an end.

Verdict

France look strong favourites but they don't convince enough to merit backing at 6-4 and last year’s fall at the final hurdle, when they had nine minutes against 14 men to score a bonus-point try and pip Wales for the title, suggests the traits of the France of old have not been completely eradicated.

Instead, Ireland look equipped to make the best of their fixture list. Their scoring power could give them a crucial edge in points difference in a tournament that may again come down to narrow margins.

And this may be the year that Scotland finally take that next big step, helped by uncertainty in some opposition camps. They look big value in the race for second spot.

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