down cross right results icon premium content video audio lifeNews icon-comment tick starFilled betSlip hot icon-liveCommentary refresh spinner
coral logo ladbrokes logo betway logo williamHill logo bet365 logo paddypower logo 888sport logo unibet logo
TODAY'S OFFERS
TODAY'S BOOKMAKER OFFERS
Exclusive to new customers
  • View offer
    Up to £100 in Bet Credits
    Claim here
    Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    £20 Risk free first bet
    Claim here
    Open an account with Paddy Power and place your first bet on any Sportsbook market and if it loses they will refund your stake in cash, max refund for this offer is £20. Limited to one per person. If you've previously had a Paddy Power account, you will not qualify for the offer. Only deposits using Cards or Paypal will qualify. T&Cs apply
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £30 in free bets
    Claim here
    Open a betting account with Coral through our site and when you place your first bet on horse racing (£10 or more) they'll give you 3 x £10 free bets. 18+. UK+IRE New Customers Only. First bet at least £10 or £10 each-way, at fractional odds totalling 1/2 or greater. Free Bets credited as 3 x £10. Free bet valid for 7 days. Free bet will not be included in any winnings. T&Cs Apply
  • View offer
    Money back as bonus up to £40 + £10 Casino bonus
    Claim here
    Money back as a bonus up to £40 if your first racing bet loses + £10 casino bonus. Min deposit £10. Money back as bonus. Wagering requirements: Sportsbook 3x at min odds of 2-5 (1.40), Casino 25x. Only one bonus can be used at a time, Sportsbook bonus must be wagered before using the Casino, unless the bonus has been forfeited. Bonus will expire after 7 days of opt-in. T&Cs apply. 18+
  • View offer
    Up to £30 in free bets
    Claim here
    Join betway, opt in, deposit £10 or more and you will get a 100% matched amount, up to £30 as free bets to split however you like. T&Cs apply. 1 x wagering at odds of 1.75+ to unlock free bet. Deposit by card or paypal only.
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £30 in free bets
    Claim here
    Open an account with William Hill using promo code C30, bet £10 and get £30 in free bets. Min £10 stake, win only, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 3 x £10, 30 day expiry, free bet/payment method/player/country restrictions apply. T&Cs apply
  • View offer
    Bet £5 get £20 in free bets
    Claim here
    Open an account with Ladbrokes using promo code 20FREE and place £5 of bets, you'll get £20 in free bets. 18+ New UK+Ire customers. Paypal and certain deposit types and bet types excluded. Min £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1-2 = 4 x £5 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days on sports, stake not returned, restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £40 in free bets
    Claim here
    Join 888sport using promo code RACING and when you bet £10, you'll get £30 in free bets PLUS £10 in free bets on any horse racing market. Min deposit £10. First bet minimum odds 1-2. Free bet credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expires after 7 days. Free bet stakes not included in returns. Deposit method and withdrawal restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £30 in free bets
    Claim here
    Open an account with William Hill using promo code C30, bet £10 and get £30 in free bets. Min £10 stake, win only, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 3 x £10, 30 day expiry, free bet/payment method/player/country restrictions apply. T&Cs apply
  • View offer
    £50 Risk free first bet
    Claim here
    Open an account with Paddy Power and place your first bet on any Sportsbook market and if it loses they will refund your stake in cash, max refund for this offer is £50. Limited to one per person. If you've previously had a Paddy Power account, you will not qualify for the offer. Only deposits using Cards or Paypal will qualify. T&Cs apply
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £40 in free bets
    Claim here
    Open a betting account with Coral through our site and when you place your first bet on horse racing (£10 or more) they'll give you 4 x £10 free bets. 18+. UK+IRE New Customers Only. First bet at least £10 or £10 each-way, at fractional odds totalling 1/2 or greater. Free Bets credited as 4 x £10. Free bet valid for 4 days. Free bet will not be included in any winnings. T&Cs Apply
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £40 in free bets
    Claim here
    Open an account with Ladbrokes using promo code RP40 and place £10 in bets and you'll get £40 in free bets. 18+ New UK+Ire customers. Paypal and certain deposit types and bet types excluded. Min £10 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1-2 = 4 x £10 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days on sports, stake not returned, restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    Up to £100 in Bet Credits
    Claim here
    Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

Reading can boss the corner count against Derby

Wise words from the Soccer Boffin

Reading ace Yann Kermorgant
1 of 1

Sky Bet Championship
3pm Saturday

Reading v Derby
Back Reading to take most corners in their Sky Bet Championship game at home to Derby. Betfair and Paddy Power may have underestimated the chance of that happening with a quote of 5-4.

Reading have had a tough season. They are only four points above the relegation line, though five of the six teams below them have played one game more. Derby are in the playoff places and will be hoping either to stay there or, preferably, move up into the automatic promotion spots.

Understandably, and rightly, bookmakers consider Derby more likely than Reading to score more goals at the Madejski Stadium. The odds, stripped of their overrounds, imply something like a 41 per cent chance of a Derby win, a 30 per cent chance of a draw and a 29 per cent chance of a Reading win.

In other Football League games with similar win-draw-loss expectations, however, the chance of the home team taking most corners is typically just under 48 per cent, which implies fair odds of 11-10.

And so far this season Reading have forced a bigger share of the corners in their games than we would have anticipated, while for Derby it has been the other way round. Do not read too much into those team-specific stats, though. Such things tend to ebb and flow.

Consider Reading. This season results have been worse than they would have expected them to be, so there have been longer periods in games when they needed a goal. And it is during times when a team are pushing for a goal that they are most likely to pile up corners.

Last season for Reading things were the other way round. They had a good campaign and were ahead in a lot of games, so there were shorter periods in matches when they still needed to score. Last season Reading forced a smaller share of the corners in their fixtures than we should have anticipated.

So their performance in corners-related markets varied with their achievements in goals-related markets.

If Reading score in the first minute then hold out while Derby come after them with wave after wave of attacks, the chance of Reading taking most corners will not be so good.

That is just one of many possible scenarios that could be played out. Each would have an impact on the chance of Reading forcing most flag-kicks. Overall that chance might be better than implied by odds of 5-4.

Recommendation
Reading to take more corners
1pt 5-4 Betfair, Paddy Power

Sky Bet Championship standings

Bet on this game at Soccerbase.com


Thought for the day

How much difference does a red card make? Ten red cards were shown last Sunday in a game between Vitoria and Bahia in one of the state championships in Brazil.

Three were shown to substitutes. In most bookings markets cards shown to substitutes do not count – rightly in my view. This would not have mattered if any bookmaker did offer odds for a bookings market on Vitoria v Bahia. The seven reds and eight yellows shown to players on the pitch would have broken any line.

Five reds were shown to players on the pitch in the 65th minute after a free-for-all – three to Vitoria players and two to Bahio players. Play continued with eight against nine.

In the 79th minute referee Jailson Macedo Freitas sent off two more Vitoria players then abandoned the match because Law 3 of Association Football says: “A match may not start or continue if either team has fewer than seven players.”

Despite all that mayhem the number of players on each team only ever differed by one, and during that time no goals were scored. In most matches that do not finish with 22 players on the pitch only one player is sent off. Being one player down can be a huge disadvantage, though.

I studied Premier League games from the last 20 seasons – 1997-98 to 2016-17 – in which one player was sent off. I noted goals for each team before and after the red card.

Teams who would be reduced to ten players were responsible for 40 per cent of all goals scored before the dismissal but only 25 per cent of all goals scored after.


Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport

Last season Reading forced a smaller share of the corners in their fixtures than we should have anticipated
Bookmaker
Price
E.W. Terms
Sporting
BetVictor
Sky bet
Boylesport
RaceBets