Turnaround time could play pivotal role in tight Premier League title race

Last weekend’s absorbing 1-1 draw between Liverpool and Manchester City lived up to the hype. It delivering both an enthralling match on the pitch for the neutrals and the result that left the tightest possible gap at the top of the table with the three title challengers separated by just a solitary point.

No club is odds-on for the crown with only ten games remaining, with the top trio priced between 5-4 and 5-2. They are all fighting on multiple fronts, having all progressed in Europe, while Manchester City and Liverpool are also in FA Cup duty this weekend while Arsenal take a break.

The standards at the top are so high, and the margin between a possible multi-trophy season and missing out on the biggest prizes is razor-thin.

Even a small drop-off from maximum levels or the odd flat half could prove costly, and managing the physical and mental demands as the big games come thick and fast will play a part as the run-in reaches fever pitch.

So far this season, the top three have combined for a 75 per cent win rate in games when they have had five or more days to prepare, but that slips to 66.7 per cent in games when they’ve had a gap of only three or four days. In odds terms, that’s the equivalent of a side winning at the rate of a 1-3 shot, drifting to a 1-2 shot when getting less recovery time.

There’s no guarantee that the patterns from earlier in the season will continue to hold true, but so far Manchester City have been less affected by quick turnarounds.

Their win rate drops only two per cent from 74 to 72 when getting a three or four-day prep, which does perhaps support theories that they are the most accomplished at managing matches and preserving energy when ahead in games.

Liverpool already have the EFL Cup in the bag this season and Jurgen Klopp’s side have the best record when the schedule allows them to play at full throttle for 90 minutes.

An 83 per cent win rate with five or more days of rest drops to 67 per cent when getting less than that, however, although two of their four losses this season came in the Europa League group stage once their qualification was practically assured, highlighting how Klopp managed to walk the squad-rotation tightrope successfully in the first half of the season.

Virgil van Dijk has looked back to his best this season, but he’s had to play only 156 minutes in the Europa League, so how Klopp continues to deploy his irreplaceable captain - and the rest of his big guns - as tougher ties in the later rounds punctuate the Premier League run-in will be fascinating.

Arsenal looked rejuvenated after their winter break having stumbled at the end of the busy Christmas period.

The Gunners look stronger compared to last year, but have the worst record of the top three with a shorter break and needed penalties to progress against Porto in Champions League and a late winner against Brentford in the last week.

Their early elimination from the domestic cups has helped them to play significantly fewer league games with a reduced turnaround, something they will likely benefit from less for the remainder of the season.

Results so far suggest last season’s treble winners Manchester City are marginally best-placed to maintain their high standards across multiple fronts.

Liverpool’s impressive league record offers hope for their fans in the trophy they covet most, considering they’ve played the most matches with a shortened rest. Their margin for midweek rotation may lessen from this point, however, so it may require prioritisation from Klopp.

Managers and players have pointed to emotion and momentum carrying them home in the run-in before when the big games come every few days, but it’s a fine line, and just one sucker punch can be tough to bounce back from as the petrol tank starts to empty.

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