Ruthlessness against weaker opponents should help Newcastle recover from tough start

Last season it took until March for Newcastle to lose their third Premier League game, and they suffered only five defeats overall, but the Magpies have had a sticky start to 2023-24, losing three of their first four fixtures.

It is far too early to jump to conclusions – at this stage of last season Leeds, who ended up relegated, were fifth, while Manchester United overcame a brutal start to finish third. 

However, for some teams the early signs provided a more accurate forecast of what was to come, with Arsenal riding a hot start to sustain a title challenge and bottom-placed Leicester never recovering as many expected. So are there any particularly worrying trends for Newcastle?

Analysis of Newcastle's start must be contextualised by the fact that no team has faced a harder opening quartet of opponents. 

The Magpies have ticked off the toughest match on the calendar – away to Manchester City – as well as hosting Liverpool and facing European qualifiers Brighton and Aston Villa. 

A haul of three points may not look great but it is only one fewer than Newcastle gathered from the corresponding games last season.

That, perhaps, explains why their odds for a top-four finish have drifted only slightly to 2-1 from 13-8 before the season began. Spread-betting firms had Newcastle joint-fifth in their pre-season points market and that is still the case, albeit with their projected points dropping from 67 to 65. 

The most significant threat to their chances of securing a Champions League finish once again is the upward revision in Tottenham and Brighton’s prospects. 

Pre-season quotes gave the Magpies an eight-point buffer over the team projected to finish eighth but that gap is already down to three.

They were in a relegation scrap when Eddie Howe took over less than two years ago so last term's top-four finish was ahead of schedule. They benefited from Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham all suffering from injuries and unrest but, based on underlying numbers, the Magpies were well worth their lofty status.

However, last season was influenced by a condensed schedule due to the World Cup in Qatar. There is a suspicion that Newcastle's lack of European football helped them post higher numbers by playing at full intensity for longer than rivals who had to manage more games. 

It also enabled consistency in selection, particularly in defence, where Kieran Trippier, Fabian Schar, Sven Botman and Dan Burn all started at least 35 league matches, helping Newcastle record the joint-best defensive record in the division.

Their summer recruitment, understandably, focused on strengthening squad depth, although their defensive reinforcements came in the full-back positions and the absence of injured centre-back Botman was clearly a factor in the 3-1 loss at Brighton last time out.

Midfielder Sandro Tonali is the only summer recruit to have started in the league and Howe hopes his arrival leads to a more fluid midfield, albeit one without an outright holding player. 

That unit earned rave reviews in the 5-1 opening-weekend mauling of Villa but subsequent performances suggest Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton are still trying to find the right balance. The new-look midfield has appeared a bit open at times but should improve as the quality of opponent eases.

One of the most striking discrepancies between Newcastle's four matches this season and the corresponding fixtures last term is the increase in goals at both ends, which continues their trend from the second half of last season.

Newcastle's Premier League performances v Aston Villa (h), Manchester City (a), Liverpool (h) and Brighton (a) 

Newcastle's expected goals allowed per game (xGA) rose from an impressive 0.93 in their first 19 games to 1.2 in their last 19 while their actual goals conceded rose from 0.58, with 11 clean sheets boosted by an unsustainably low opponent conversion rate, to 1.16 with only three shutouts.

The good news for Howe is that his side's output increased at the other end from 1.68 xG created per game to 2.13 in the second half of the season. They had a more modest increase from 1.74 to 1.84 actual goals per game despite a mid-season streak of ice-cold finishing. 

The improvement coincided with the return to fitness of Alexander Isak but, given Howe’s reputation at Bournemouth, the trend of more goals at both ends may be more indicative of Newcastle's future efforts. 

A return to form for goalkeeper Nick Pope wouldn’t go amiss after a couple of shaky moments for the England man against Brighton.

It is worth noting that, in relative terms, Newcastle were at their best against the Premier League's weaker teams. Seventh-placed Aston Villa were the lowest side they lost to last season and they ranked fourth for points won and second for xG difference against clubs who failed to qualify for Europe. Talk of an early-season crisis should be shelved, then, unless their problems persist as the difficulty of their fixtures eases.

Newcastle have to find a way to be more consistently competitive against the top sides if they are to end their trophy drought. They are 11-4 with bet365 to lift silverware this season although that task has been made harder by being drawn against Manchester City in the EFL Cup and facing Milan, Paris St-Germain and Borussia Dortmund in their Champions League group.

The mood at St James' Park would be happier had they not been sucker-punched in a 2-1 defeat to ten-man Liverpool, who they outshot 23-9. 

The margin for error around in this season's battle for Champions League spots could be incredibly fine, so they need to get points on the board soon.

However, they started last season with only one win in seven games, and won just twice in nine outings immediately after the World Cup, so they deserve the benefit of doubt as their fixtures balance out and they get up to speed.

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