Impressive Brighton bidding to hit target against Reds once again

In the past 12 months, Brighton have sold £125m worth of players, lost their manager and a number of important backroom staff, yet they are still on track to improve on last season’s ninth-placed finish, their best effort in the top flight. 

And the underlying stats suggest their current league position of sixth is far from undeserved and a tilt at European qualification is a realistic aim for the Seagulls.

The league is not their only route into Europe, however. Brighton are 16-1 sixth-favourites for the FA Cup at the start of the fourth round and, with nine Premier League clubs already eliminated, and one of Manchester City and Arsenal guaranteed to join them, Brighton's odds of reaching only their second FA Cup final will shorten significantly if they can overcome Liverpool.

It’s a tough draw on paper but Brighton have scored six goals in two games against the Reds this season and they are an awkward match-up, stylistically, for Jurgen Klopp’s side.

Liverpool have been one of the most aggressive high-pressing sides in the Premier League while, since Roberto De Zerbi arrived in September, Brighton have been one of the boldest teams in possession when playing out from the back, taking more risks to lure and ‘bait’ the opposition press in before trying to play through it.

De Zerbi’s first game in charge was a 3-3 league draw at Anfield. Seemingly oblivious of the Italian’s reputation at previous clubs, Klopp remarked after the game that Brighton's set-up was “really brave” and that Liverpool “couldn’t prepare for it because we had no idea what they would do”.

Brighton were 2-0 up inside 18 minutes, forcing Liverpool into their least effective press of the season and exposing their high defensive line.

Klopp changed his formation for the reverse fixture earlier this month, playing Thiago in a more advanced role in a 4-4-2 diamond. Once again, though, Brighton, with Moises Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister to the fore, won most of the midfield duels, leaving Klopp bemoaning the fact that “we didn’t win the key moments, we didn’t win the challenges … I can’t remember a worse game”.

Brighton’s nine shots on target was the most Liverpool have allowed in the league since the 2020-21 season and only Arsenal have had more touches in their penalty box this term.

De Zerbi shares many of the same principles as his predecessor Graham Potter, namely possession and pressing, but is more aggressive in trusting his players' technical ability to play out of tight spaces, hoping to actively create space and manipulate an opposing team's shape rather than rely on the more controlled possession of Potter.

It’s a risky tactic and the stats show it is resulting in significantly more goals at both ends of the pitch. Under the Italian there have been over 2.5 goals in 76.9 per cent of Brighton's matches, the joint-highest rate in the division and more than double the 34.2 per cent of last season, which was the lowest in the top flight.

De Zerbi has switched to four at the back and their possession and territorial game has gone up a level with only Manchester City completing more passes since his arrival. It is also purposeful possession as only the top two, Arsenal and City, and Liverpool have completed more progressive passes.

The sample sizes for De Zerbi and Potter this season aren’t huge and it is clear that some of Brighton's attacking-output increase started under the Englishman before Chelsea came calling. They also picked up only two points from De Zerbi’s first five games as he tried to install his ideas against a tough run of opponents.

Things started to click in a 4-1 thrashing of Potter’s Chelsea, kickstarting a run of 16 points from eight games during which Brighton have scored 22 times. The Seagulls are playing well and they have run a bit hot. They are scoring almost three goals per game since the World Cup, which is a higher rate than the top two in the division. That almost certainly won’t last.

Credit: Racing Post

Brighton’s misfortunes in front of goal in recent seasons have been well documented. This term they are taking their shots from better locations, with shots in the box up under both managers, but the biggest difference is in the accuracy of those efforts.

In recent seasons Brighton never ranked higher than 17th for hitting the target. This term they are second. In Potter’s six games they hit the target with 33 per cent of their shots, a slight increase from previous years, but under De Zerbi it is 40.6 per cent – the highest rate in the league.

Maybe, given the sample size, they are just running hot, but it’s also possible that De Zerbi's more dynamic passing style means they are taking their shots against defences who are on their heels more – less settled, less capable of closing down the player shooting.

Top scorer Leandro Trossard has departed for Arsenal but Brighton's goals have been shared around since the World Cup. Solly March, now playing a more advanced role, has scored four times in five games, having failed to notch in his previous 58 league appearances. Youngster Evan Ferguson has bagged three goals in less than 200 minutes played – the same number as skilful winger Kaoru Mitoma, who ranks second in the division for successful dribbles per game.

Squad depth remains a concern but De Zerbi picked a strong side for the 5-1 third-round win at Middlesbrough and, if he follows suit on Saturday, Klopp must hope it is third time lucky for Liverpool as he seeks to find the right balance to keep the Seagulls quiet.

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