What does Southampton's win at Leicester City tell us about reverse fixtures?

Southampton 0 Leicester 9. Leicester 1 Southampton 2. What a turnaround. For the rest of the season, in the Premier League, EFL and elsewhere, teams will be meeting for the second time. Generally speaking, how much does the first encounter in a season tell us about the second? Usually a little, but only a little.

I studied reverse fixtures in the EFL over more than 20 seasons. To keep things simple, I will give examples not for lots of margins of victory or defeat but simply for the result, whether a team won, drew or lost.

After teams had won away in the first meeting, the results of the second meeting when they played at home were as follows: 48 per cent home wins, 27 per cent draws and 25 per cent away wins.

If teams had drawn away in the first meeting, the results of the second meeting when they played at home were: 45 per cent home wins, 28 per cent draws and 27 per cent away wins. And if teams had lost away in the first meeting, the results of the second meeting when they played at home were: 41 per cent home wins, 28 per cent draws and 31 per cent away wins.

As a rule, the better a team did in the first game the more likely they were to do well in the second game – but not that much more likely.

Kevin Pullein's best bet of the day

Milton Keynes Dons most corners taken v Sunderland
0.5pt 7-4 Sky Bet

Back Milton Keynes Dons to take most corners in their League One game at home to Sunderland. Sky Bet offer 7-4. The Dons are less likely than Sunderland to flight most flag kicks but perhaps a bit more likely than those odds suggest.

Sunderland are used to playing at a higher level and sooner or later they will be again. They are currently one of the better teams in League One and under new manager Phil Parkinson, who was appointed in October, they start the day one place and one point below the playoff line with a game in hand on the team above it, although a couple of teams below them have two games in hand.

The Dons have improved since Russell Martin became manager in November. With 12 points from his ten games they have moved out of the relegation zone, though teams below them have games in hand.

The result-related markets suggest something like a 26 per cent chance of a home win, a 27 per cent chance of a draw and a 47 per cent chance of an away win, and those figures sound reasonable.

Over the last two decades in EFL games with similar result expectations the chance of the home team taking most corners was typically about 42 per cent. Odds of 7-4 imply a 36 per cent chance of a payout.

More generally there is usually a relationship between the number of goals a team score and concede and the number of corners they take and defend. And this season that relationship has held, broadly speaking, for Milton Keynes Dons and Sunderland. Perhaps in corners markets the Dons have fared slightly less well than we might have anticipated and the Black Cats slightly better, but only by one per cent or so.

Who takes most corners today may be influenced by if and when goals go in. If one team take the lead the other will have to attack harder, and in the rest of the match they are likely to gain a larger share of the corners than they would otherwise have done. Taking all possibilities into account it does seem arguable that the chance of Milton Keynes Dons taking most corners in the match may be better than 7-4.

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