San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs: Super Bowl 54 preview, free NFL picks

Free American football tips, best bets and analysis for San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV.

Where to watch

BBC1 & Sky Sports Main Event, 11.30pm Sunday

Best bet

San Francisco
2pts 11-10 general
Back this tip with Paddy Power

Match preview

After four-and-a-half months of pulsating plays, exceptional games and unbelievable drama, the NFL season reaches a sizzling climax on Sunday night.

The AFC’s Kansas City meet the NFC’s San Francisco in Super Bowl LIV at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, and the 49ers can dig deep for a memorable victory.

The Chiefs have become notorious for their juggernaut offence and that has been on full display in the playoffs as they scored seven touchdowns in the final three quarters of their 51-31 victory over Houston before finding the end zone another five times against Tennessee.

Tight end Travis Kelce has been a key component in head coach Andy Reid’s offence, registering 1,229 receiving yards during the regular season, the fourth-most in the league, and he has often been vital in securing first downs to move the chains and keep the Chiefs in control.

San Francisco also boast an outstanding tight end in George Kittle, and the 49ers have at times been just as ferocious in attack as their opponents.

Running back Raheem Mostert rushed for 220 yards, the second-most in NFL postseason history, and four touchdowns in their 37-20 demolition of Green Bay in the NFC Championship game.

With Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida also in the mix, head coach Kyle Shanahan's running game can prove too much for most opponents. Their talented backfield takes the pressure off quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who completed only six passes in their NFC Championship victory over Green Bay.

The 49ers should have the edge on the other side of the ball. During the regular season they had the second-best overall defence and passing defence in terms of yards allowed, and have had the best rushing defence in the playoffs, giving up just 83 yards in their two games.

Containing the Chiefs' sometimes sublime quarterback Patrick Mahomes will no doubt be their biggest challenge, but he was rarely put under pressure by Tennessee’s lacklustre pass-rushers, and will be given more to think about when facing star rookie Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and DeForest Buckner.

While Kansas City have won their last eight games and have looked red-hot at times, it is worth remembering they had sluggish starts against both Houston and Tennessee, coming back from 24-0 down against the Texans and falling 10-0 behind against the Titans.

San Francisco’s defence is a totally different prospect and Mahomes could begin to feel the pressure in the biggest game of his career if things aren’t going his way.

• More Super Bowl analysis and free picks at Pickswise.com

Perhaps the key player match-up in the game is Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill going up against top cornerback Richard Sherman.

Hill is renowned for his speed and having scored five touchdowns in the last two games he is likely to give the 31-year-old Sherman all he can handle. But if the outspoken defensive player can keep a lid on his opponent then their entire offence could begin to stagnate.

San Francisco scored the second-most points during the regular season and although Kansas City’s defence is by no means poor Shanahan’s team should have an easier time moving the chains than their opponents.

All things considered, it is surprising to see the 49ers are slight underdogs for this game and look to be the ones to side with in their bid for a first Super Bowl success since 1995, which came at the Hard Rock Stadium.

For more American sports analysis and tips, visit www.pickswise.com

The lowdown

Venue Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Surface Grass
Weather Clear, 18C
Vegas handicap San Francisco +1.5
Vegas points line 54

Injury report

San Francisco
Linebacker Kwon Alexander (pectoral), running back Tevin Coleman (shoulder) and safety Jaquiski Tartt (ribs) have been limited in practice, but are expected to play.

Kansas City
The Chiefs are also expected to be at full strength. Defensive tackle Chris Jones (calf), tight end Travis Kelce (knee), centre Austin Reiter (wrist) and tight end Deon Yelder (Achilles) are expected to be available.

Key stat

The favourites have covered the handicap in just three of the last 12 Super Bowls.

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