Monaco Grand Prix qualifying betting tips and F1 predictions: Leclerc looking good to take pole in home race

Where to watch the Monaco Grand Prix

Practice three & Qualifying Sky Sports F1, 11.30am & 3pm Saturday

Race Sky Sports F1, 2pm Sunday

Best bet

Charles Leclerc fastest qualifier
2pts 4-5 general

Monaco Grand Prix qualifying predictions

Charles Leclerc looks to have a great opportunity to win his home race for the first time in Sunday's Monaco Grand Prix and he can at least give himself a strong chance by qualifying fastest on Saturday.

The Monegasque driver has been beset by bad fortune on the streets of Monte Carlo but most of his problems have come on race day and there is no doubt at all that he knows how to get around the twisting street circuit in brisk fashion.

Leclerc did suffer a qualifying meltdown in 2019, when his complacent Ferrari team did not send him out for a second run in Q1 and he did not get through, but since then his qualifying form at Monaco reads 1-1-3 and he looks well set to claim a third home pole.

In 2021, Leclerc did not even start the race after winning pole due to car damage, while the following year a poor race strategy left him only fourth. Last year he qualified third, but incurred a three-place grid penalty for impeding Lando Norris and finished sixth.

He looked the man to beat in practice on Friday, setting the pace in the afternoon session having been fifth to Lewis Hamilton in the morning.

The Ferrari seems to ride the kerbs at Monaco better than its rivals and Max Verstappen in particular was having trouble with that issue, setting only the fourth-fastest time in P2, 0.535 seconds behind Leclerc.

The world champion is available at 5-2 to maintain his record of taking pole at every race this season but this could be the circuit where he finally has to start further back.

Verstappen is no longer favourite for Sunday's race and is 21-10 with Betfair and Paddy Power to win for the third time in four years in Monte Carlo, with Leclerc the 5-4 race favourite and Norris an 8-1 chance with Coral and Ladbrokes.

The McLarens of Norris and Oscar Piastri looked good and could throw down the strongest challenge to Leclerc in qualifying, while Mercedes looked more competitive than they have all season and Fernando Alonso's Aston Martin was third in the afternoon practice.

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