Steve Palmer's Italian Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 11am Sunday

Best bets

Dean Burmester to win Italian Open
1pt each-way 8-1 Betway, BoyleSports

Story so far

European Tour maiden Laurie Canter is tied with Ross McGowan going into the final round of the Italian Open - the duo locked at 19 under par and three shots clear of the field.

Chervo Golf Club has been ripped to shreds by the powerhouses and ante-post 50-1 chance Canter has had more fun than most. The Bath boy opened with a 12-under-par 60 in round one, shortening to 9-2 favourite, and is a best-price 7-4 going into the closing 18 holes.

Canter closed round three with a trio of birdies, but could not shake off McGowan, who won the 2009 Madrid Masters. The 38-year-old Essex man covered the final four holes in three under par to stay with his playing partner.

Dean Burmester is alone in third place, with much-fancied Spaniard Adri Arnaus in a tie for sixth spot, five shots off the pace. Victor Perez missed the cut by a shot, while Martin Kaymer is tied for eighth place, six adrift.

Leaderboard
-19 Laurie Canter, Ross McGowan
-16 Dean Burmester
-15 Sebastian Heisele, Nicolas Colsaerts
-14 Tapio Pulkkanen, Adri Arnaus

Best prices
7-4 L Canter, 5 R McGowan, 8 D Burmester, 10 N Colsaerts, 16 A Arnaus, 20 S Heisele, 25 bar

Final-round preview

Laurie Canter has failed to maintain the incredible gallop he generated early in this tournament and he admitted after round three to feeling out of sorts over the first few holes of Saturday afternoon, but a barnstorming finish sent him to the clubhouse in high spirits.

Canter was level par for his third round through 15 holes, but a hat-trick of birdies from the 16th onwards was a crucial spurt of scoring which changed the complexion of the leaderboard. A good chance of a breakthrough victory has suddenly become a golden one - and it will be fascinating to see how his temperament holds up in round four.

Canter is full of recent form - fifth in the Wales Open, 13th in the UK Championship, runner-up in the Portugal Masters and 14th in the Irish Open - but he has never won an event of any significance. His professional career has been bereft of silverware and he is no spring chicken.

Given his form and his suitability to Chervo GC, it seems right that Canter heads the betting going into the denouement. Ross McGowan is the shortest driver in the top seven on the leaderboard and it has been magnificent short-game work which has provided this chance.

Despite winning on the Challenge Tour last year, he does not have a European Tour card, so it could be argued that victory means even more to McGowan than Canter.

McGowan, though, has proved his mettle by winning three times on the Challenge Tour and once on the European Tour, not to mention a 2015 Sunshine Tour success.

The old grey matter seems set to play a bigger part in this final round than most. Canter is chasing a so far elusive trophy, while McGowan's European Tour victory came almost exactly 11 years ago. Despite the straightforward nature of the track and the forecast for calm, clear conditions, there must be every chance that the final twoball (11.15am UK and Ireland time) is full of twitchiness, inviting pressure from deeper on the board.

Racing Post Sport ante-post selection Adri Arnaus is still close enough if good enough. Despite some ugly putting throughout - and him making a mess of the par-five fourth and bogeying it in every round - the Spanish slugger has the potential to go extremely low on Sunday if some confidence-boosting putts drop early.

There is hardly any margin for error, though, for Arnaus, and preference at the final-round prices is for Dean Burmester, who has brought an improved attitude to the course this week. The South African brute, one of the most powerful operators on the circuit, has been in superb putting form in recent weeks and is well capable of a round in the low-60s.

Burmester revealed early in the week that he was putting too much pressure on himself to be perfect - and that "anxiety" had been causing his fades from contention - but that this week he arrived determined to adopt a "don't care" attitude to proceedings.

The new mindset has worked so far and two closing birdies have left him within three shots off the pacesetting pair. Burmester at 8-1 is the most attractive outright price on offer. He won six times on the Sunshine Tour before becoming a European Tour champion in the 2017 Tshwane Open. Expect him to take advantage of any wobbling from Canter and McGowan.

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