Steve Palmer's Texas Open predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Texas Open at TPC San Antonio on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf red button from 1.30pm on Thursday

Best bets

Rory McIlroy
5pts 8-1 bet365, Hills
Abraham Ancer (NON-RUNNER, stakes returned)
2.5pts each-way 20-1 general
Davis Riley
1pt each-way 66-1 bet365

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Jordan Spieth used last year's Texas Open to end a 1,351-day spell outside the winner's enclosure, delighting his army of fans in his home state, and the darling of the galleries is seeking to retain his title at TPC San Antonio.

Aside from a bold effort on the short courses of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, though, Spieth has been unimpressive this year, exiting meekly at the group stages of the WGC Match Play last week.

If Spieth is to build on his excellent Masters record next week, the 2015 Augusta champion probably feels he needs to significantly sharpen up over the next four days. Masters punters will be watching him like a hawk this week.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rory McIlroy 8-1

The betting community has been ignoring Rory McIlroy for the Texas Open since the market was issued - he has been easy to back at double-figure odds on the exchanges - but the assumption that the Northern Irishman will fail to focus in Texas may be wide of the mark.

The majority of punters clearly believe McIlroy will have more than one eye on next week's Masters, using Texas as a gentle warm-up, but the man himself seems keen to perform well in San Antonio and has become an appealing betting proposition for those prepared to swim against the tide of opinion.

Next week is obviously McIlroy's most important tournament of the year - he again looks to complete the career Grand Slam of Majors - and he has spoken about how he craves distraction from that mission in the lead-up to the Masters. The 32-year-old hates what he calls the "Masters hype train", and the Texas Open is his way of getting his mind locked in on something else.

McIlroy changed his schedule this year in a bid to revive his Masters fortunes. He skipped the Match Play last week and will play the Texas Open for the first time since 2013. There is no better way for him to distract himself from the Masters than to contend for the Texas Open title. The four-time Major champion has said he is not in Texas just to go through the motions - and the lack of quality in this field means he should be in the thick of things throughout.

Hideki Matsuyama and Bryson DeChambeau have been suffering with injury issues, while Corey Conners played seven rounds in the WGC Match Play last week and another 72 holes will test his powers of stamina and concentration.

McIlroy, who won the CJ Cup in October, has looked good this year, finishing 12th in Abu Dhabi, third in Dubai, tenth at Riviera and 13th at Bay Hill, before getting on the wrong side of a significant draw bias in the Players Championship. He closed with a 66 at Sawgrass - Dustin Johnson was the only player to outscore McIlroy in round four.

TPC San Antonio suits McIlroy more than it did when he finished runner-up in 2013 - there is more room to attack on his return nine years later - and this deep thinker will be fully aware there is one thing he has never done before the Masters.

He has tried everything in his quest for the Green Jacket - he has turned up at Augusta fresh from a long break, while he has competed the week before four times - but he has never teed up in the Masters after winning the Sunday prior. Maybe that is the missing piece of the Masters puzzle - and McIlroy fans may soon get to find out.

Next best bet

Abraham Ancer 20-1 (NON-RUNNER)

A hometown gig for Abraham Ancer has come at an ideal time - the Texas-born Mexican rediscovered his A-game in last week's WGC Match Play. Ancer lives in San Antonio and practices regularly at the TPC. He has got a solid record in the Texas Open and can seriously contend for the first time this week.

A New Year switch to Callaway - and a period of adjustment with some new equipment - may have been the reason for Ancer's sluggish start to 2022. Aside from eighth place in the Saudi International, he had not been appearing on leaderboards, but his swing was back in mint condition in the Match Play.

Ancer was unbeaten in his group, beating Bubba Watson and Webb Simpson and halving with Brian Harman, then stunned Collin Morikawa at the last-16 stage with a 7&6 success. Ancer lost to an in-form Corey Conners in the quarter-finals, but could make the short trip home on Saturday thrilled with the state of his game.

Ancer won his maiden PGA Tour title at the end of last summer - and a follow-up success on Sunday seems entirely feasible.

Other selection

Davis Riley 66-1

There seems so much scope for improvement from Davis Riley - a two-time Korn Ferry Tour champion bursting with potential. The 25-year-old almost made his PGA Tour breakthrough in the Valspar Championship last time out.

Riley has a textbook golf swing and possesses effortless power. He made a mess of the fifth hole in the final round of the Valspar, carding a triple-bogey eight, but held himself together from there to set up the chance of a winning birdie putt on the 72nd hole.

Riley missed and was unfortunate that defending champion Sam Burns was waiting for him in the resultant playoff - a Burns birdie ended the event at the second extra hole - but Riley cemented his PGA Tour future with the runner-up cheque of $850,000.

Riley should be more relaxed if another chance presents itself and this week he tees up at a course where he has lifted silverware before. There was a one-off Korn Ferry Tour event at TPC San Antonio in 2020 - and Riley won it by two shots.

Players to note

Kramer Hickok
Progressive PGA Tour form figures of 42-33-13 - as well as Texas roots - make this accurate driver one to consider.

Adam Hadwin
Ninth place in the Players Championship was followed by seventh in the Valspar Championship, so the Canadian brings plenty of form to San Antonio.

Beau Hossler
The Austin-based swinger has posted a top-20 finish in three of his last six PGA Tour spins. Dangerous maiden.

Dylan Frittelli
The former University of Texas star lives in Austin and has found some decent form in recent weeks.

TPC San Antonio course guide

Course TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), San Antonio, Texas
Prize money $8.6m ($1.386m to the winner)
Length 7,494 yards
Par 72 - four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
Field 144 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in the field (world ranking in brackets) Rory McIlroy (9), Hideki Matsuyama (12), Bryson DeChambeau (14), Abraham Ancer (16), Jordan Spieth (17)

Course records - 72 holes 268 Corey Conners (2019) 18 holes 62 Trey Mullinax (2018)

Course winners taking part Brendan Steele, Martin Laird, Jimmy Walker, Charley Hoffman, Kevin Chappell, Andrew Landry, Corey Conners, Davis Riley (2020 TPC San Antonio Championship, Korn Ferry Tour), Jordan Spieth

When to bet By 1pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf red button from 1.30pm on Thursday

Time difference Texas is six hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - WGC Match Play 1 S Scheffler (16-1), 2 K Kisner (55-1), 3 C Conners (60-1), 4 D Johnson (22-1), T5 S Power (125-1), W Zalatoris (50-1), Abraham Ancer (55-1), B Koepka (33-1); Corales Puntacana Championship 1 C Ramey (55-1), T2 A Smalley (40-1), B Martin (300-1), T4 J Vegas (18-1), C Percy (75-1), 6 R Hojgaard (40-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Greg Norman-designed Oaks Course has been used since 2010. Adam Scott won there first before saying that the layout reminded him of sandbelt courses in Australia. There are plenty of deep bunkers, along with lots of penal scrubland off the fairways. Shorter rough and widened fairways made for improved scoring from 2018 onwards. Undulating greens can be tough to hold. The fourth - a tight, 481-yard par-four - is the most difficult hole. A Korn Ferry Tour event (TPC San Antonio Championship) was staged at the Oaks in July, 2020

Story of last year Jordan Spieth repelled Charley Hoffman to triumph by two shots and end a long victory drought

Weather forecast Sunny and warm throughout, with temperatures peaking at 31C on Saturday afternoon. Gentle breezes for the most part, with Friday afternoon (15mph) set to see the strongest wind of the week

Type of player suited to the challenge Crisp ball-strikers who churn out greens in regulation have typically been favoured for this traditionally challenging assignment. The set-up has become more generous in recent years, though, and strong putting has become more important

Key attribute Touch

Spotlight insight Six of the last seven winners have all ranked inside the top five for putting average

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