Steve Palmer's South African Open free golf betting tips, predictions

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the South African Open at the Gary Player Country Club on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 9am on Thursday

Best bets

Wilco Nienaber
3pts each-way 16-1 Betfred
Brandon Stone
3pts each-way 14-1 general

Tournament preview

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is a short-priced favourite for the South African Open after his four-shot Alfred Dunhill Championship triumph on Sunday, but this week's challenge does not suit him as well and the skinny odds can be left alone.

Since the renovation in 2017, Leopard Creek has become tougher, with super-fast greens turning the event into more of a grind. Bezuidenhout relishes that sort of assignment and was able to card a bogey-free back nine on Sunday while his leaderboard rivals crumbled, but more powerful, aggressive sorts can get the better of him in Sun City.

Dylan Frittelli has jetted over from America after finishing fifth in the Masters and is full of confidence, but his failure to play in either of the South African events preceding this one - the Joburg Open and the Alfred Dunhill - is off-putting. Preference is for a pair of youngsters who teed up in both of them, warming up nicely for a crack at their national Open.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Wilco Nienaber 16-1

The long-term future of Wilco Nienaber is almost certainly decorated in diamonds - he is blessed with enough golfing talent to cruise into the game's elite in the years to come - but the immediate future could yield a European Tour breakthrough.

This is an unusual South African Open - the first to be staged at the Gary Player Country Club and a field shorn of star quality for various reasons - and Nienaber has a fantastic opportunity to take advantage. He possesses the tools to destroy GPCC if in the groove.

A runner-up finish in the Joburg Open the week before last was followed by another bright effort in the Alfred Dunhill which ended in a share of 12th - three shots off second place. Two holes at Leopard Creek derailed the challenge of Nienaber - the eighth and ninth.

The 20-year-old powerhouse covered the eighth and ninth in a total of eight over par for the week. He was 15 under par for the other 16 holes, making 23 birdies and an eagle, but just lost his timing at key moments around the turn.

Nienaber has got so many easy birdies in him - because allied to his jaw-dropping length is a silky smooth putting stroke. Once his wedge play has been tidied up, rapid progression can be expected up the world rankings.

The Bloemfontein giant grew up a five-hour drive from Sun City, so has probably seen the track before, even though this is his professional debut there. It could be a match made in heaven. This is his third week teamed up with new caddie Jason Scheepers and the experienced bagman can help Nienaber conquer GPCC.

Next best bet

Brandon Stone 14-1

A share of 23rd place was disappointing for Brandon Stone in the Alfred Dunhill last week, but he could easily bounce back by winning in Sun City. The 27-year-old, South African Open champion in 2016, has shown over the last fortnight that every department of his game is in order.

Poor driving cost Stone a title challenge in the Alfred Dunhill, which came as a shock after such a strong driving performance in the Joburg Open, where he finished fourth. Last week at Leopard Creek he was excellent on approach and his putting improved, but he did not set himself up well enough off the tee.

Golf is a maddening sport and getting your long game and short game peaking in unison is never easy, but if Stone can rediscover his driving form from Joburg and combine it with his approach-play standard from Leopard Creek, then the rest of the field could be in trouble.

Stone has been in wretched form for his previous trips to this venue and quickly found himself tailed off, but this time he has arrived in Sun City in good nick and can do himself justice. With a place in next week's DP World Tour Championship already assured, a fourth European Tour triumph will be his sole target at GPCC.

Players to note

Jayden Trey Schaper
The 19-year-old performed superbly for three-and-a-half rounds of the Alfred Dunhill, leading at the turn, but a hooked drive at the tenth resulted in a triple-bogey and a share of second place. Schaper clearly has huge potential.

Garrick Higgo
The South African left-hander has gone off the boil, flopping in the Cyprus Showdown, Joburg Open and Alfred Dunhill, but he has won a Sunshine Tour event at GPCC and could slip back into form this week.

Dean Burmester
The power-packed slugger finished 11th in his last GPCC start and could be a factor after fifth place in the Italian Open and 18th in the Joburg Open. His Leopard Creek record is terrible, so last week's missed cut can be forgiven.

Oliver Bekker
The fancy prices against the name of the seven-time Sunshine Tour champion could be worth an each-way interest. The third of those victories came on this course.

Gary Player Country Club course guide

Course Gary Player Country Club, Sun City, South Africa
Prize money $1.2m ($200,000 to the winner)
Length 7,834 yards
Par 72
Field 156
Course records- 72 holes 263 Ernie Els (1999) 18 holes 62 Lee Westwood (2011 Nedbank Challenge)

Course winners taking part Darren Fichardt (2004 Dimension-Data Pro-Am), James Kamte (2008 Dimension-Data Pro-Am), Keith Horne (2008 Nashua Golf Challenge), Oliver Bekker (2016 Sun City Challenge), Peter Karmis (2017 Sun City Challenge), Neil Schietekat (2018 Sun City Challenge), Garrick Higgo (2019 Sun City Challenge), Daniel van Tonder (2020 Royal Swazi Sun Open)

When to bet By 4.30am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 9am on Thursday

Time difference South Africa is two hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Alfred Dunhill Championship 1 C Bezuidenhout (18-1), T2 J T Schaper (70-1), A Meronk (150-1), S Crocker (80-1), R Bland (66-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The post-Covid European Tour schedule has been hastily arranged and strange at times, underlined by the fact a second South African Open is taking place this year. The original, staged at Randpark, Johannesburg, in January, was won by Branden Grace. The Gary Player Country Club, which hosted the Million Dollar Challenge and the Nedbank Challenge from 1981 to 2019, has taken over as South African Open venue this week. The 2020 Nedbank Challenge has been cancelled. Last year's Nedbank boasted a record first prize of $2.5m, but this week the Sun City hopefuls will be playing for a much smaller cheque. The Dimension-Data Pro-Am (1996 to 2009), the Nashua Golf Challenge (2007-2011), the Sun City Challenge (2016-2019) and the Royal Swazi Sun Open (2020) are low-grade Sunshine Tour events which were also staged at this venue. The course is enormous, but a variety of tees can be used to alter the yardage if bad weather makes the full length unplayable. The layout boasts kikuyu fairways and fast, clover-shaped, bentgrass greens surrounded by bunkers, swales and mounds. Some very low scores were carded many years ago – Padraig Harrington shot an 11-under-par 61 in 2001 playing with preferred lies, while Ernie Els (25 under par in 1999) and Nick Price (24 under in 1993) have also butchered Player's design. The lengthening of the course, though, has made life tougher for visitors, although the venue is at altitude, so the ball flies further than usual. Tour chiefs are swapping the nines this year, so the event will end at what was the par-five ninth hole.

The story of the last tournament Branden Grace closed with a 62 at Randpark GC to beat Louis Oosthuizen by three shots in January

Weather forecast Sunny and hot for the most part, with a thunderstorm threat over the weekend. Light breezes for the majority of the tournament.

Type of player suited to the challenge Big-hitters have asserted themselves on the Gary Player Country Club over the last decade and quality ball-striking is the key to slaying his vast layout.

Key attribute Power

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