Steve Palmer's Houston Open predictions, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Houston Open at Memorial Park on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf red button from 12.50pm Thursday

Best bets

Jordan Spieth
2pts each-way 60-1 Betfred
Lanto Griffin
2pts each-way 45-1 Betfred
Maverick McNealy
1pt each-way 140-1 bet365
Kristoffer Ventura
1pt each-way 110-1 Betfred

Dustin Johnson returns to action this week after going down with Covid-19 prior to the CJ Cup at Shadow Creek - and punters taking short prices about the world number one will be taking a leap of faith with regards to his health and game.

Johnson is probably fit enough to get over Covid fairly swiftly, but his case was serious enough for him to miss both the CJ Cup and the Zozo Championship, so the Florida-based 36-year-old may be short of practice coming to Houston.

Johnson will be looking to use this event as a gentle warm-up for the Masters, easing himself back into a groove prior to Augusta, and more focused runners are much preferred. Brooks Koepka knows Memorial Park better than most, having helped with its redesign, but the world number 12 has been struggling for fitness and form.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Jordan Spieth 60-1

Bryson DeChambeau has been hogging the pre-Masters headlines - while the spotlight in the Houston Open will fall initially on Dustin Johnson - but a former king of Augusta may use Memorial Park to remind the world that he still has plenty to offer. Jordan Spieth seems worth chancing for take-off in Houston.

Spieth, who can boast Masters form figures of 2-1-2-11-3-21, would dearly love to find his A-game on Augusta-eve. And where better than Texas for the Dallas born and based superstar to rediscover his mojo? The University of Texas graduate is a hero in the Lone Star State and his biggest fans know that at the age of 27 there is still plenty of time for more glory to arrive.

Spieth, a three-time Major champion who needs only the US PGA title for the Grand Slam, is winless since the 2017 Open and has dropped to 75th in the world rankings. His best post-lockdown finish, though, came in Texas - tenth place at Colonial - and an encouraging fortnight in elite company at Shadow Creek and Sherwood Country Club has set him up nicely for Houston.

Spieth closed with rounds of 69 and 67 in the CJ Cup - only three players outscored him that weekend - then only 11 players outscored him in the final round of the Zozo Championship. The former world number one has obviously been struggling for 72-hole consistency, but there have been some positive signs, and Memorial is a layout which he could enjoy.

Perhaps sensing this event could be a golden chance to get back to winnings ways, Spieth may have journeyed from Dallas to Houston for practice rounds in the last few months. If not, though, and he lacks knowledge of the track, the wide-open terrain and devilish dancefloors should have him licking his lips.

Spieth needs room off the tee - and he gets it at Memorial Park - and he also gets the chance to show off his short-game class on fast, undulating greens, surrounded by run-off areas. With no rain in the forecast, there should be enough run on the ball to help with the yardage, and at juicy prices the old Golden Boy of the PGA Tour is worth the risk. Spieth lost a Houston Open playoff in 2015 and was third in his last start in the event.

Next best bet

Lanto Griffin 45-1

The defending champion can walk tall this week and Lanto Griffin could love Memorial Park as much as the Golf Club of Houston. Griffin made his PGA Tour breakthrough when arriving in Houston in steady form - and he may have timed his run perfectly again.

Seventh place in the CJ Cup was followed by 11th in the Zozo Championship, where there was no disgrace in carding a final-round 72 alongside Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas in a pressure-packed final threeball.

Putting is the great strength of Griffin and he has got his rock rolling well in time for Memorial Park. Both his Korn Ferry Tour wins came in this region of America - one in Tennessee and one in Alabama - and more success in the south could be coming on Sunday.

Other selections

Maverick McNealy 140-1

Kristoffer Ventura 110-1

Complete a four-pronged attack with two young outsiders - Maverick McNealy and Kristoffer Ventura should develop into PGA Tour champions before long. Both are blessed with a superb short-game, so they can handle the complex greens of Memorial Park.

McNealy, former world number one amateur, was eighth in the Rocket Mortgage Classic in July, then seventh in the Barracuda Championship the following month. More recently, 17th in the Sanderson Farms and 21st in the Bermuda Championship on Sunday hint the 24-year-old is getting closer to his breakthrough. His best PGA Tour finish of 2019 came in the Houston Open (17th).

Ventura, impressive on the Korn Ferry Tour post-lockdown, then seventh in the Safeway Open and sixth in the Sanderson Farms, is nine months older than McNealy and won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. The Mexico-born Norwegian, a college teammate of Matt Wolff and Viktor Hovland, possesses all the tools to flourish at Memorial Park.

Players to note

Matt Jones
The 2014 Houston Open champion finished fourth in Bermuda on Sunday and could threaten the places again.

Beau Hossler
The Californian, Houston Open playoff loser in 2018, has the right game to succeed this week in his adopted home state of Texas.

Phil Mickelson
Lefty, awesome on the Champions Tour of late and abysmal on the PGA Tour, could easily take a shine to Memorial Park.

Viktor Hovland
The Norwegian, who did not qualify for the Masters, has no Augusta distractions in Houston.

Memorial Park course guide

Course Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston, Texas
Prize money $7m ($1.35m to the winner)
Length 7,432 yards
Par 72
Field 132

When to bet By 12.45pm Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf red button from 12.50pm Thursday

Time difference Texas is six hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Bermuda Championship 1 B Gay (250-1), 2 W Clark (80-1), 3 O Schniederjans (100-1), T4 S Cink (50-1), D McCarthy (30-1), D Redman (28-1), M Jones (80-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Houston Open was traditionally the week before the Masters, but switched to an October slot last year. Coronavirus has meant a November berth this time and an immediate return to a pre-Masters slot. The tournament was played at the Golf Club of Houston from 2006 to last year, but a new venue takes over this week. Memorial Park, opened in 1912, is being used on the PGA Tour for the first time since 1963. Tom Doak, with assistance from Brooks Koepka, has redesigned the course in readiness for its Tour return. Doak, who also designed Scottish Open venue, the Renaissance Club, added elevation and improved drainage, some holes were lengthened, some were shortened, trees were removed, bunkers were, too, and the fairways were widened. The course is generous off the tee, but the bermuda rough is penal. The undulating greens have run-off areas around them and provide the main defence of the track. There are five par-fives and five par-threes.

Story of last year Lanto Griffin fended off Scott Harrington and Mark Hubbard to land a maiden PGA Tour title

Weather forecast Sunny with gentle breezes throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge This is a decent pre-Masters short-game examination for the players, with relatively fast, slopey greens surrounded by short-grass run-off areas, so touch on and around the dancefloors seems essential.

Key attribute Touch/putting

Follow us on Twitter

Like us on Facebook