Steve Palmer's BMW Championship betting preview, lowdown, free tips & TV details

Starts 3.15pm Thursday
TV: Sky Sports Golf, 5pm Thursday

The Masters was only four months ago but it seems like a lifetime for Tiger Woods, who has lost fitness and form and completed just two tournaments since his Augusta glory, meaning he needs a positive performance in the BMW Championship this week to qualify for the Tour Championship.

From 38th in the FedEx Cup standings, Woods needs to move up eight spots to secure a place at East Lake next week and get the chance to defend his Tour Championship title. After last week's first-round 75 in The Northern Trust, swiftly followed by a withdrawal citing an oblique strain, Tiger fans are looking gloomy. The only course winner in the field is up against it.

Patrick Reed showed last week how quickly FedEx Cup fortunes can change, moving from 50th place to second in the standings after winning in New Jersey, and the in-form Texan has got the pacesetting Brooks Koepka in his sights with two playoff events remaining.

Steve Palmer's top tip
Justin Thomas 14-1

A mid-season wrist injury meant six weeks off for Justin Thomas at a crucial period – the former world number one was forced to skip the US PGA Championship and he is winless this term – but that spring breather could reap late reward as he gallops towards the PGA Tour finishing line.

While many others, headlined by Woods, appear to be creaking as a congested campaign approaches a conclusion, Thomas seems fresh and hungry, and the pint-sized powerhouse still has high hopes of becoming FedEx Cup champion.

Thomas has won at least one tournament in each of the previous five years, starting on the Web.com Tour before becoming a nine-time PGA Tour champion, and he is eager to maintain that streak. The final two events of the season look like magnificent opportunities given how well he is swinging and the $15m FedEx Cup prize is within his grasp from 15th spot on the standings.

Thomas was FedEx Cup champion in 2017, so will not be intimidated by the prospect of a mega-bucks payday, and his last four outings indicate that the Kentucky crusher will be in the thick of things throughout the remainder of the playoffs.

• BMW Championship match bets

Ninth place in the Scottish Open was followed by 11th in the Open Championship, then 12th spot in both the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational and The Northern Trust on his return to the States.

His only previous experience of any of the courses he has played in his last four starts was from the 2017 Presidents Cup at Liberty National, but he has overcome a lack of familiarity as well as a cold putter to feature on every leaderboard.

Any warming of the putter at Medinah, a long, inviting track made for his talents, and Thomas should contend. He is second on the PGA Tour strokes-gained-on-approach statistics – a crucial attribute given how small the greens are at Medinah.

And, unlike last week when he had to suffer alongside the snail-like Bryson DeChambeau for the first two rounds, he has two genial BMW playing partners in the shape of Paul Casey and Adam Scott. Sky Bet are offering seven places.

Next best
Brooks Koepka 17-2

Talk is already shifting to next week's Tour Championship, where a handicap system will essentially be in place depending your FedEx position, and Brooks Koepka knows he has to perform well in the BMW Championship if he wants to start at East Lake with a two-shot lead.

With 2,000 FedEx points on offer to whoever wins this week and just 12 for 70th place, anyone from Kevin Tway (40th) upwards on the FedEx list has the potential to overtake Koepka at Medinah. This will surely guarantee a high level of focus from the world number one, who has never won the FedEx Cup.

Koepka knows the importance of retaining top spot for East Lake, especially with the likes of Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm lurking just over his shoulder in the standings, and the Floridian powerhouse can be expected to invest fully for 144 holes over the next fortnight before coasting through the rest of the year.

Four under-par rounds for 30th place in New Jersey last week was a tidy, gentle warm-up for Medinah. The course greatly suits Koepka and he should be clear favourite. BoyleSports are offering a win-only 17-2.

Other selections
Patrick Cantlay 22-1
Jason Kokrak 60-1

Strong wagers on Thomas and Koepka do not leave much room in the staking plan for anyone else, but it would be bold to go into battle without Patrick Cantlay onside, and Jason Kokrak is a lively outsider worth a small each-way investment.

Cantlay, who has posted 14 top-20s in 19 starts this season, including victory in the Memorial, second spot in the Shriners Open and third place in both the US PGA Championship and the Heritage, is sixth in the FedEx standings due to his relentless consistency. He was 12th in New Jersey last week, carding four under-par rounds, and should take a shine to Medinah.

• Czech Masters tournament tips

Kokrak, brilliant for the first four months of the year and second in the Valspar Championship, took his foot off the gas in May and June.

The hunt for an overdue maiden PGA Tour title has been stepped up again this month, though, with sixth place in the Wyndham Championship followed by a share of 12th at Liberty National. Medinah is set up for big-hitters and Kokrak can take advantage.

Others to note
Rory McIlroy
The 2016 FedEx Cup champion is third in the standings and threatening a repeat. He has fond memories of Medinah, having met his wife there in the 2012 Ryder Cup, an event in which he scored three points from five matches.

Jon Rahm
The Spaniard is suited to Medinah and well in the FedEx Cup hunt from fifth place, but he must quickly get over letting victory slip through his fingers last Sunday at Liberty National, where three back-nine bogeys saw him overtaken by Patrick Reed.

Dustin Johnson
The world number two started well at Liberty National, but weekend rounds of 74 and 73 saw him plummet down the board. Medinah suits and he won three points from three matches in the 2012 Ryder Cup, but his driving has become wild recently and he is constantly tinkering with his putting stroke and switching putters.

Justin Rose
The defending FedEx Cup champion won three points from five matches in the 2012 Ryder Cup. Like McIlroy, he could be inspired at the scene of the Miracle of Medinah, but poor closing rounds in recent weeks must be denting confidence.

Rickie Fowler
The Californian is clearly capable of entering the BMW equation, but he has dropped from seventh to 18th in the world rankings over the last five months, losing his early-season swagger.

Hideki Matsuyama
The Japanese ace can use his ever-accurate approach shots to contend at Medinah, but will probably not hole enough putts to take the title in such elite company.

Staking plan
J Thomas
4pts each-way 14-1 Sky Bet
Back this tip with bet365

B Koepka
4pts 17-2 BoyleSports (enhanced win-only)
Back this tip with bet365

P Cantlay
2.5pts each-way 22-1 Betfair
Back this tip with bet365

J Kokrak
1pt each-way 60-1 Sky Bet
Back this tip with Hills

BMW Championship lowdown

Course Medinah Country Club (No. 3 Course), Medinah, Chicago, Illinois
Prize money $9.25m ($1.62m to the winner)
Length 7,657 yards
Par 72
Field 70
Course records- 72 holes 270 Tiger Woods (2006 US PGA) 18 holes 65 Skip Kendall (1999 US PGA), Tiger Woods (2006 US PGA), Mike Weir (2006 US PGA)

Course winners taking part Tiger Woods (twice)

When to bet By 3.15pm Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm Thursday

Time difference Illinois is six hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - The Northern Trust 1 P Reed (50-1), 2 A Ancer (175-1), T3 H Varner (250-1), J Rahm (16-1), 5 A Scott (45-1), T6 J Spieth (55-1), R McIlroy (11-1), L Oosthuizen (66-1), B Snedeker (100-1)

Course overview Medinah's famous No. 3 Course has hosted five Majors, including the 1999 and 2006 editions of the US PGA Championship, which were both won by Tiger Woods. The 2012 Ryder Cup was also staged there, becoming known as the Miracle of Medinah after Europe mounted an incredible final-day comeback to defeat the United States.

Tom Bendelow designed the layout in 1928, with various renovations in the 1930s, then Roger Packard made further changes in 1986, followed by Rees Jones prior to the 2006 US PGA, who made the track, at the time, the longest in Major championship history. Significant doglegs feature on several of the par-fours at this parkland venue.

It is a long course, but Woods managed winning totals of 11 and 18 under par, and Davis Love made the set-up as easy as possible for the Ryder Cup there, hoping it would favour the big-hitters in his team. There are two short par-fives – the fifth and the tenth. And two long ones – the seventh and 14th. The 15th is a driveable 'risk-reward' par-four. The greens are small and well protected by bunkers.

Story of last year Keegan Bradley beat Justin Rose in a playoff at Aronimink GC in Pennsylvania, both having tied at 20 under par.

Weather forecast Hot and sunny for the most part, with light to moderate breezes, and a thunderstorm threat on Friday.

Type of player suited to the challenge This is a long track where powerhouses should dominate. The last elite event staged there – the 2012 Ryder Cup – saw the likes of Lee Westwood and Sergio Garcia criticise the lack of danger off the tee.

The rough will be thicker for this event, but an attacking slugger should still reach 15 under par or better with accurate approach shots.

Key attribute Power

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