Determined Dustin Johnson set to complete his Kapalua hat-trick

Starts 8pm Thursday
Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11pm

Justin Rose, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have decided to extend their holidays rather than jet to Hawaii for the Sentry Tournament of Champions, but a stellar field featuring seven of the world's top eight will get the new year off with a bang.

World number one Brooks Koepka is an extremely tempting option at 11-1. He finished third on his maiden Kapalua visit, before finishing last 12 months ago, a week of hacking which can be completely disregarded as he was labouring badly with a wrist injury. The top dog has been inactive since November 18, though, and may be slow from the blocks at a breezy Plantation Course.

Rory McIlroy is making his tournament debut, shaking up his schedule in a bid to improve on a disappointing 2018, while Bryson DeChambeau, 26th of 34 runners on his first Kapalua visit last season, is bidding for his fifth US Tour triumph in just over seven months.

Palmer's top tip
Dustin Johnson 11-2

The so-called Bash Brothers – Koepka and Dustin Johnson – probably drool with excitement whenever they are about to tee up at the Plantation Course. The wide-open layout, with fairways like runways and greens resembling baseball fields, is made for powerhouses to assert themselves.

Koepka and Johnson, who appear to have drawn a line under their Ryder Cup arguments, are prime candidates to tear the track apart. And preference is for Johnson, who has a significant advantage in terms of course experience.

Knowledge of this quirky, undulating terrain, where picking clubs and target lines is notoriously tricky, is invaluable, and debutants have an understandably poor record in this event. Koepka has essentially had only one spin – he was running lame last year – while Johnson can draw upon lessons learned from eight previous Kapalua starts.

Johnson is one of only three course winners in the field – and he is the only multiple victor. Last year, he destroyed the field by eight shots, closing with a 65 for a 24-under-par total which turned the event into a procession despite a consistent breeze. He almost aced the 433-yard par-four 12th hole in the final round, a remarkable drive which one leading pundit described as “the greatest shot ever”.

His first Kapalua victory, though, is perhaps even more telling to his chances of success this week. Johnson was again an emphatic champion – by four shots in 2013 – in an event where wind played a significant role in proceedings. The first three days this year are forecast to feature strong gusts, something Johnson has always been adept at handling.

The close-season has allowed Johnson to overcome a relationship wobble with his fiancee – wedding plans are intensifying – as well as giving him plenty of time to test putters on the practice green. Regular flat-stick switches were holding him back at the end of last year, but he is likely to have settled on one he trusts for 2019.

Johnson won three times in 2018 – Kapalua, St Jude and Canadian Open – and finished second on the US Money List. It is only because DJ has set the bar so high for himself that a campaign like that is considered a failure.

Expect a determined start to the year as he bids to get on the tail of Koepka at the world rankings summit. A 20th US Tour title on Sunday would send out a strong statement of intent.

Next best
Bubba Watson 33-1

Preparation is key to success at Kapalua – arguably more than in any other event on the calendar – as all of the field downed tools to a great extent over Christmas. Bubba Watson arrived at Kapalua last week to make sure he shook the rust off his game and got into decent shape for the opening event of the year.

Watson turned 40 in November and probably feels a fresh desire to squeeze as much as possible from the rest of his career. The dual Masters champion has clearly got his eye on a first Kapalua success and the Plantation Course sets up superbly for him.

Watson, full of imagination and shotmaking skill, possesses the tools to tame Kapalua and has the experience of six previous visits to draw upon. Fourth place in 2013 – the breezy week when Johnson triumphed – is Watson's best effort. He won three times last year, including a WGC, and is well capable of mixing it with Johnson, Koepka, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and the rest of the main contenders this week.

Other selections
Patton Kizzire 100-1
Scott Piercy 80-1

Patton Kizzire followed a share of 15th place in the RSM Classic with victory alongside Brian Harman in the QBE Shootout to finish 2018 in morale-boosting fashion, and the Alabaman giant can ride that wave through Hawaii.

The Plantation Course suits Kizzire, who appreciates room off the tee and typically putts well, and he carded four under-par rounds to finish 15th on his debut last year. The following week, he won the Sony Open in Hawaii, underlining his fondness for that part of the world.

Autumn and winter are when Kizzire seems to come alive – his US Tour victories were in November and January, while his two runner-up spots were both in October. Spring and summer went poorly last year, but he has not missed a cut since the US PGA and is finding his form.

Another outsider who appeals is Scott Piercy, who, like Watson, turned 40 in November and will probably be relishing his chance to make an impact in the Tournament of Champions. Piercy played some excellent golf around his milestone birthday, signing off for 2018 with fifth spot in the CJ Cup, tenth in the Shriners Open and sixth in the Mayakoba Classic.

Piercy is powerful and attacking – well suited to the challenge of Kapalua – and he has three years of competition there under his belt. There are nine debutants in the field of 34, but Piercy has solid course form figures of 12-13-24. The three-time US Tour champ won the Zurich Classic pairs event alongside Billy Horschel in April.

Others to note
Jon Rahm
The Spaniard finished second on his Kapalua debut last year and won the Hero World Challenge by four shots a month ago. He is an obvious dangerman, but hosting a charity event in Spain for the Seve Ballesteros Foundation just before Christmas is a slight negative. The Yuletide trip home added some unhelpful air miles.

Justin Thomas
The powerhouse took advantage of calm conditions in 2017 to become Kapalua champion, but has finished outside the top 20 in his other two appearances. He did not arrive as early as normal this year as his traditional New Year party pals Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler have not qualified.

Charles Howell
The 39-year-old is riding the crest of a wave, having ended an 11-year victory drought at the RSM Classic in November. He tied eighth on his last Kapalua visit in 2008 and could run into a place at a fancy price.

Xander Schauffele
The Californian's control will stand him in good stead over a windswept opening three rounds. He has become a dangerman in elite company and should greatly improve on the 22nd place he managed on debut 12 months ago.

Cameron Champ
The longest hitter in golf, a rising star of the US Tour, should fall in love with the Plantation Course, but may need time to settle on his tournament debut.

Aaron Wise
Another gifted young gun making his Kapalua debut, bursting with talent but handicapped by a lack of experience.

Staking plan
D Johnson
4pts each-way 11-2 BoyleSports, Power
B Watson
2pts each-way 33-1 general
P Kizzire
1pt each-way 100-1 bet365, Sky Bet
S Piercy
1pt each-way 80-1 general

The lowdown

Course Plantation Course at Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii

Prize money $6.3m ($1.26m to the winner)

Length 7,518 yards

Par 73

Field 34

Course records – 72 holes 261 Ernie Els (2003) 18 holes 62 KJ Choi (2003), Graeme McDowell (2011), Jason Day (2015), Chris Kirk (2015)

Course winners taking part Dustin Johnson (twice), Patrick Reed, Justin Thomas

When to bet By 9pm Thursday night

Where to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11pm Thursday

Time difference Hawaii is ten hours behind the UK and Ireland

Course overview Kapalua is the traditional home of the US Tour curtain-raiser and a power-hitter's paradise. The fairways are like runways and the layout provides the perfect place to blow off the Christmas cobwebs. There are only three par-threes and this whopper boasts seven holes longer than 500 yards. The 663-yard closing hole is a serious test of strength on a track which has the largest greens on the circuit. The course has been lengthened by 66 this year, the fourth hole being extended most.

Story of last year Dustin Johnson turned the tournament into a procession, reaching 24 under par, cruising to an eight-shot victory.

Weather forecast Sunny and breezy for the first three days, before calmer conditions for round four.

Type of player suited to challenge The roll call of past winners shows how powerhouses can flourish at Kapalua. Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh, Geoff Ogilvy, Dustin Johnson (twice) and Justin Thomas have all used considerable length off the tee on this wide-open terrain. Some recent champions, though, like Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed have shown that superb short-game work is also crucial. Large, undulating, often windswept greens make scrambling difficult

Key attribute Power

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