Brandon Stone looks a rock-solid Leopard Creek investment

Tournament starts 4.20am Thursday
Live on Sky Sports Golf from 10.30am

Louis Oosthuizen won his first South African Open title in Johannesburg on Sunday, weeping with relief afterwards, and it is a surprise to find the former Open champ going to post again in the Alfred Dunhill Championship.

Oosthuizen will do well to stay focused for a lesser event this week having just invested so much emotion in a front-running effort, and his Alfred Dunhill record is full of holes. He has missed six cuts in ten starts. This class act is obviously playing well enough to win anywhere, but represents no value at such skinny odds.

Charl Schwartzel is the Dunhill king. When the tournament moved to Leopard Creek at the end of 2004, he won his maiden European Tour title there in a playoff at the age of 20, and he has triumphed at this venue on three further occasions. Margins of victory were 12 shots in 2012, then four in 2013 and 2015.

Schwartzel's Leopard Creek form figures, starting with the 2003 South African Tour Championship and ending with last year's renewal, read 11-1-2-2-MC-14-2-2-1-1-26-1-4. There have been significant course renovations since the last edition though – including different turf for the fairways and greens – and Schwartzel continues to putt poorly under pressure.

Palmer's top tip
Brandon Stone 18-1

Oosthuizen and Schwartzel dominate the Alfred Dunhill betting, but Brandon Stone, champion the last time this event took place, looks a better bet for success at the revised Leopard Creek.

Stone will be thrilled that his A-game has reappeared at the perfect time for another crack at the Creek, where he carded a 22-under-par 72-hole total to triumph by seven shots two years ago. His best golf is exceptionally good – highlighted by the final-round 60 he fired on his way to winning the Scottish Open by four shots in July – and the 25-year-old appears ready for further fireworks.

Stone closed with a 66 – the joint-best score of the day – in the final round of the South African Open on Sunday. A share of seventh place sent the cocksure youngster to Leopard Creek with a spring in his step.

Course form figures of 18-1 can be bolstered this week, despite the modifications that have been made to the track. It could actually be a positive for Stone that all the greens have been dug up and relaid with the latest strain of Champion bent grass from Houston, Texas. Leopard Creek has claimed the South African rights to this particular grass. Stone played a year of college golf at the University of Texas, winning three tournaments, before turning pro in 2013. He putts well on bent grass and the new dancefloors will hold no fears for him.

Stone has won two of his last 11 European Tour events in South Africa, posting five top-tens, and is blessed with the talent and self-belief to mix it with Oosthuizen and Schwartzel even if the two favourites get into contention. Stone started the final round of the last Alfred Dunhill with a three-shot lead over Schwartzel, courageously stretching that advantage to ten by close of play.

Next best
Dylan Frittelli 18-1

Texas ties encourage an investment in Stone, and that is even more the case for Dylan Frittelli, who completed three successful years at the University of Texas and loved the place so much that he still lives in Austin. Frittelli should roll his rock with confidence on Texas-style greens.

On reflection, it was foolishly asking too much of Frittelli to produce his best in the South African Open, which was his fifth consecutive week of tournament golf. Mental fatigue must have been the major factor in him suddenly losing his form at Randpark GC. The missed cut and weekend breather will have done him good and normal service could easily be resumed at Leopard Creek.

Frittelli has solid form figures of 22-11-25 on the old Leopard Creek layout and should like the new set-up even more. He was seventh in the DP World Tour Championship and fifth in the Mauritius Open prior to flopping at Randpark.

Other selections
Romain Langasque 25-1
Haydn Porteous 45-1

There are not many maidens on the European Tour with more ability than Romain Langasque and the Frenchman should play with increased freedom having banked the South African Open runner-up cheque on Sunday. He even earned an Open Championship berth to boot.

Langasque claimed those coveted prizes courtesy of a brilliant final-round 66, a performance built on a three-shot Challenge Tour triumph at the end of September and fourth place in the Challenge Tour Grand Final last month. He is bristling with confidence, has an excellent record in Africa, and his lack of experience at Leopard Creek is easy to overlook given the course changes.

Complete a four-pronged attack in the final tournament of 2018 with Haydn Porteous, who carded four under-par rounds for a share of seventh in his national Open on Sunday. Porteous won the Kenya Open on the Challenge Tour in 2015 and has won twice on the European Tour since. He is still only 24, his potential remains considerable, and he will be thrilled with how his putting, a traditional weakness, was so magnificent at Randpark GC last week.

Porteous has a poor Leopard Creek record, but the course has been given a significant makeover, so his past failures can be forgiven.

Others to note
Sean Crocker
The Zimbabwe-born American has posted four top-fives on the Challenge Tour in the last three months and was ninth in the Australian PGA. Talented dangerman.

Dean Burmester
The South African powerhouse followed fourth place in the DP World Tour Championship with a missed cut in his national Open.

Branden Grace
The gritty Pretorian won this event by seven shots in 2014, but also has three missed cuts on his record. He found some long-game form at Randpark last week, but his putting stroke looked ugly.

Matt Wallace
The active Englishman goes to the well one last time before Christmas. Self-belief has never been higher, but he faded from second to 15th at Randpark on Sunday and looks in need of a breather.

Erik van Rooyen
The South African maiden withdrew from his national Open on tournament-eve through illness. He is an obvious threat if back to full fitness.

Victor Perez
The Challenge Tour graduate has made a bright start to life on the main circuit and could threaten the places.

Staking plan
B Stone
3pts each-way 18-1 Betfair
D Frittelli
2.5pts each-way 18-1 Sky Bet
R Langasque
2pts each-way 25-1 Betfred, Sky Bet
H Porteous
1pt each-way 45-1 Sky Bet

The lowdown

Course Leopard Creek Country Club, Malelane, South Africa

Prize money €1.5m (€250,000 to the winner)

Length 7,287 yards Par 72 Field 156

Course records – 72 holes 264 Charl Schwartzel (2012) 18 holes 61 Thomas Aiken (2008)

Course winners taking part Ernie Els, Darren Fichardt (2001 SA Tour Championship), Charl Schwartzel (four times), Richard Sterne, Garth Mulroy, Branden Grace, Brandon Stone

When to bet By 4.20am Thursday

Where to watch Live on Sky Sports from 10.30am Thursday

Time difference South Africa is two hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week – South African Open 1 L Oosthuizen (7-1), 2 R Langasque (40-1), T3 C Schwartzel (18-1), T Aiken (55-1), B Easton (400-1), O Wilson (250-1)

Course overview This Gary Player designed layout opened in 1996 and hosted the Tour Championship on the South African circuit from 2001 to 2004. The more prestigious Alfred Dunhill Championship moved to Leopard Creek in 2005 and remained at the venue until the '2017' edition in December, 2016. There was no '2018' Alfred Dunhill last year due to the course undergoing extensive improvements. The par-three 12th hole has been completely redesigned, many of the fairway bunkers have been repositioned, the Kikuya grass fairways have been replaced with Bermuda, so there is more run on the ball, and the greens have been planted with the latest strain of Champion bentgrass from Texas. The venue is located on the southern edge of South Africa's Kruger National Park and it offers an incredible golfing experience, with animals such as lions, hippos, crocodiles, giraffes and antelope usually close by. Two long par-fours approaching the turn (the eighth and ninth) provide the greatest challenge. Two of the four par-fives (the 13th and 18th) are well in range in two shots, although a lake surrounds the 18th green and many stars (notably Ernie Els with his disastrous triple-bogey eight in 2007) have seen their title hopes find a watery grave there. The other two par-fives (the second and 15th) are 580 and 598 yards respectively

Weather forecast Hot and sunny with light breezes for the most part. Small chance of a short thunderstorm on Friday morning

Type of playersuited to challenge Charl Schwartzel, Ernie Els, Alvaro Quiros, Pablo Martin, Garth Mulroy, Branden Grace and Brandon Stone have all won on this track employing an aggressive, power-packed approach, but the revised track will demand more caution, with faster-running fairways. The layout is much changed from the last Alfred Dunhill, so course form is not worth as much as previously

Key attribute Touch

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