Tottenham have closed the gap but can they overhaul bogey side Chelsea?

Tottenham smashed Southampton 4-1 on the opening weekend of the 2022-23 Premier League season and they are priced up by most bookmakers to be the closest challengers to Manchester City and Liverpool.

There is certainly an early-season buzz around the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and this weekend's trip to Chelsea should tell us more about whether or not it is justified.

The widely-acknowledged catalyst to Spurs' improvement has been the arrival of Antonio Conte, a former Premier League title winner with Chelsea, at the start of last November. When Conte succeeded Nuno Espirito Santo, Spurs trailed Chelsea by ten points but by the end of the campaign that gap was trimmed to just three.

As the table below shows, the 59 points gathered by Tottenham since the Italian's arrival is comfortably the third-best in the division and if that pace was sustained for a full season it would lead to a points tally of 77.

Their underlying numbers are on the same level, ranking third in expected-goal difference, and, while Spurs may not rack up the quantity of shots of the other leading sides, they carve out the highest-quality chances on average.

Their four goals last weekend were all from in and around the six-yard box and they are at their best when able to play through the thirds quickly to get their forwards running in behind, rather than against sides sitting back in low blocks.

Chance quality, coupled with the finishing skill of Heung-Min Son and Harry Kane, means Tottenham have the highest conversion rate in the top flight since Conte's arrival. Efficiency is the name of the game as they take fewer touches in the attacking third and the penalty area while allowing a lot more than the other top sides.

Taking stats from the start of Conte's Tottenham reign is a little harsh on Chelsea as it excludes their red-hot start to last season in which they took 25 points from their opening ten games.

That means the final months of the season, when motivation may have dipped due to them being virtually assured of a top-four finish but not involved in a battle for the title, may be over-weighted.

With the club's takeover now completed they have been active in the transfer market and look set to splash the cash even more before the end of the window. The accompanying scatter graph, which goes from the start of last season, probably gives a fairer ranking of the teams and Arsenal will be hoping to close the gap after their own summer business.

Chelsea have dominated their recent head-to-head record against Spurs, who have failed to score in the last six meetings in all competitions, losing five and drawing one of those matches.

Conte bemoaned how far behind the "top sides" Tottenham were after the 2-0 league loss in January, which came hot on the heels of being dumped out of the EFL Cup by Thomas Tuchel's men.

Conte's Spurs won at champions City and drew twice with Liverpool, however, so they can compete at the highest level although the top two generally allow more space in behind than Tuchel's more circumspect Chelsea side.

The 2-0 reverse at Stamford Bridge was the one occasion on which Conte employed a back four and that defeat came before Spurs were bolstered by the arrivals of Dejan Kulusevski and Rodrigo Bentancur at the end of the January transfer window.

Kulusevski, who notched a goal and an assist against Southampton last weekend, has claimed six goals and nine assists in the league since arriving from Juventus, placing him among the elite for goal involvements per game.

His sample size is smaller than that of the other players in the accompanying bar chart, and his nine assists were boosted by Spurs' hot finishing in the second half of the season, coming from an expected-assists figure of 3.9.

However, the Swede's impact combining with Son and Kane is undeniable and the fact that Conte has had a full pre-season is another reason why Tottenham are 11-5 to win on Sunday, having been 4-1 for the January league clash with Chelsea. They've won on only one of their last 37 visits to Stamford Bridge though, and this will be an early litmus test for both sides' aspirations.

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