Run-in suggests Reds can’t relax even if they win Etihad showdown

The lead in the Premier League changed hands twice last Saturday as Liverpool and Manchester City exchanged wins, but this Sunday’s titanic title showdown at the Etihad marks the last time that both sides will have control of their own destiny.

Whoever leaves the Etihad in second place will be relying on favours from elsewhere and, while there are a number of hurdles for both teams to clear, the levels of consistency they have reached in recent seasons means there may not be many slip-ups.

Since the start of the 2018-19 season, Manchester City have picked up 338 points to Liverpool’s 337. The pair are in a league of their own having claimed over 70 points more than next-best Chelsea, who have 264.

On paper, City have the slightly easier run-in - the average Premier League position of their remaining opponents is 12.4 compared to 10.6 for Liverpool.

The Citizens' next four games will be against Brighton, who have scored one goal in their last seven games, then Watford, who are 19th, Leeds, who are 16th, and 15th-placed Newcastle. Three of those games are at home, too.

Their toughest two engagements are a trip to West Ham in May, and the yet-to-be-rescheduled journey to Wolves. Liverpool will be hoping that those opponents are still chasing a European spot by then.

The Reds face meetings with top-four hopefuls Manchester United and Tottenham, but will at least enjoy home comforts for those contests.

United will want to gain some revenge after being embarrassed 5-0 at Old Trafford earlier in the campaign, but their disjointed recent performances suggest that Spurs will instead provide Liverpool with their toughest test.

Only the top two have collected more points than Tottenham since Antonio Conte took charge in November, and they have won five of their last six, averaging 3.5 goals a game.

They gave Liverpool one of their toughest games of the season when drawing 2-2 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in December, winning the expected goals battle 3.4 to 1.5 according to data from fbref.com.

Jurgen Klopp’s side are chasing a historic quadruple while City can still win the treble. The title rivals clash again in the FA Cup next weekend, but the biggest challenges could be posed by their Champions League commitments, and both sides are heavily favoured to progress following their quarter-final first-leg victories this week.

The semi-final first legs will take place on April 26 and 27, and that could create a short week for Liverpool. As it stands they are scheduled to play a Merseyside derby, with all the intensity that fixture brings, at 4.30pm on the preceding Sunday, followed by an awkward trip to Newcastle for a 12.30pm kick-off the following Saturday. Bayern Munich, still their most likely semi-final opponents despite the midweek first-leg loss at Villarreal, won't give them an easy time in between.

The second leg will take place a week after the first, just a few days before the Spurs clash. Things appear to have fallen more kindly for City, whose seemingly favourable fixtures sit around any potential European ties.

The title race has ebbed and flowed several times this season.

Manchester City are 1-2 having started the season as 4-6 pokes. The biggest price they touched was 13-8 after they dropped points in two of their opening five games - losing at Tottenham and being held at home to Southampton - compounded by fast starts for Liverpool and Chelsea.

They were odds-on again just a couple of weeks later and went as short as 1-20 in mid-January following victories over Arsenal and Chelsea which extended their winning streak to 12 matches and their lead over Liverpool to 14 points.

The Reds still had two games in hand at that point, but briefly touched 14-1 before embarking on their current ten-match winning run which, following a couple of City slip-ups, has taken them into 7-4 ahead of Sunday’s showdown - the shortest price they have been all season.

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