Italy v Spain predictions: Azzurri can frank form of Euro 2020 semi-final win

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Italy v Spain in the Nations League semi-finals on Wednesday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Football, 7.45pm Wednesday

Best bet

Italy
2pts 13-10 Betfred

Team news

Italy
Ciro Immobile, Matteo Pessina (both thigh), Rafael Toloi (muscle strain) and Leonardo Spinazzola (Achilles) are ruled out.

Spain
Gerard Moreno, Jordi Alba (both hamstring), Thiago Alcantara (calf), Pedri, Dani Olmo, Alvaro Morata and Marcos Llorente (all thigh) are sidelined.

Match preview

Spain felt hard done by after their penalty-shootout loss to Italy in the last four of Euro 2020 and they may suffer further anguish when facing the Azzurri in their Nations League semi-final at the San Siro.

Goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma was the Italian hero in the Wembley encounter, saving Alvaro Morata's poorly-taken penalty and ensuring a positive outcome to a difficult evening for Roberto Mancini's side.

The match itself had been largely controlled by Spain, who carved out 70 per cent of possession and won the shot count 16 to seven, but Italy did what they do best by defending diligently and finding a way to get over the line.

Spain came out of the tournament with mixed feelings, realising that they had missed a big opportunity but also understanding that they had shown signs of a very positive future.

Of the young players who impressed, none caught the eye more than 18-year-old Barcelona midfielder Pedri, who played with the assurance of somebody who knew he belonged at the highest level.

However, Pedri suffered a thigh injury during Barcelona's 3-0 Champions League defeat at Benfica last week and his loss is just the tip of the iceberg with regards to Luis Enrique's selection problems.

Seven of the Spain players involved in the Euro 2020 semi-final are injured, including 79-cap left-back Jordi Alba and attacking trio Dani Olmo, Gerard Moreno and Morata.

Consequently, the 23-man squad has an inexperienced look to it and includes 11 players with ten caps or fewer, among them uncapped duo Gavi and Yeremy Pino.

Italy have a few injury problems to contend with themselves, including the loss of regular centre-forward Ciro Immobile.

But their squad is not radically different to the triumphant Euro 2020 group and defensive rocks Giorgio Cheillini and Leonardo Bonucci will be keen to add a Nations League medal to their collection.

Italy lost a little intensity and focus in the wake of their summer success, following up with a pair of sketchy World Cup qualifying results – a 1-1 draw at home to Bulgaria and a 0-0 stalemate away to Switzerland.

However, the chance to win a title on home soil should get the juices flowing and may help them return to the level of performance they were reaching a few months ago.

Mancini's side are unlikely to be seen at their best but they should do enough to see off injury-hit Spain and this time they can get the job done inside normal time.

Key stat

Italy are unbeaten in their last 37 international fixtures.

Inside info

Italy

Penalty taker Jorginho
Free-kick wizard Lorenzo Insigne
Set-piece aerial threat Giorgio Chiellini
Card magnet Jorginho

Spain

Penalty taker Koke
Free-kick wizardKoke
Set-piece aerial threatAymeric Laporte
Card magnetSergio Busquets

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