Germany have sunk to an all-time Low

Five things we learned ...

We are two-thirds of the way through the inaugural Nations League and there’s no doubt that a dull autumn of pointless friendlies has been improved beyond all recognition.

France are on course to complete the World Cup-Nations League double - which may sound like a big deal a few years from now -while merely mentioning the words ‘Germany’ and ‘relegation’ in the same sentence has to delight anyone who has been on the wrong end of a penalty shootout against them.

So what have we, as fans and punters, learned from two rounds of action in international football’s newest addition?

1 Germany need to take a leaf out of England’s book
One of the more startling football stories of the past 12 months has been the decline of Germany, a team with just three wins in 13 matches over the last year.

The look doomed in the Nations League and calls for coach Joachim Low’s head are obvious – but his exit won’t solve Die Mannschaft’s problems overnight.

It's clear that Germany have gone stale under Low. But after 169 matches in charge it’s hardly a surprise that the national set-up has gone flat. The wisdom of giving Low an extended four-year contract four weeks before the World Cup was questioned by many at the time and rightly so.

This might seem unpalatable to any self-respecting German, but they need to take a leaf out of England’s book.

As Gareth Southgate was given a licence to jettison the old guard, introduce kids galore and didn’t appear to have been put on the clock in terms of delivery, so Low – or his successor – needs to axe the likes of Manuel Neuer, Jerome Boateng, Mats Hummels and Thomas Muller and be given time to start again. It’s not a quick fix but that means building the future around Niklas Sule, Julian Draxler, Julian Brandt, Leroy Sane among others.

Finding someone to lead the line, something that was historically never an issue for Germany, is a harder problem to solve.

After defeats to Holland and France they are on the drift for Euro 2020, but it's still easy to resist odds as big as 8-1. This is a renovation job which could take a while.

2 Portugal might just be the value to win the Nations League
The betting’s all about France, Belgium and Spain – none of whom have qualified yet – but 8-1 shots Portugal look overpriced.

Two years after being crowned European champions under Fernando Santos, the Portuguese are long odds-on to win Group 3 where they have won two out of two.

That they’ve done so without Cristiano Ronaldo is testament to their next generation, with the likes of Renato Sanches, Andre Silva, Ruben Neves and Bernardo Silva now ready to shine. And Ronaldo can also be summoned if and when it matters.

Another thing in their favour is that, should they qualify, it’s highly likely they’ll be hosting next summer’s finals. Only three countries – Portugal, Italy and Poland – lodged an interest in staging the event by the August deadline and all are in the same section.

Now it’s quite possible Uefa, in that parish council, do-as-they-please way of theirs, could yet revisit the hosting process, but as it stands, if Portugal qualify, they’ll have a massive advantage.

Since losing the final of Euro 2004 in Lisbon, Portugal have lost two home competitive matches.

3 Could Luxembourg or Gibraltar qualify for Euro 2020?
Such a thought might seem fanciful but tucked away in the small print for European Championship qualifying is the notion that a team as bad as Luxembourg or Gibraltar could make the finals.

In short, the first 20 teams for the 24-country Euros will be decided in qualifying which begins in March. It’s straightforward; ten groups of five or six teams with the top two from each section qualifying for the the finals.

For the final four spots, however, Uefa have decided one non-qualified country from each of the four Nations Leagues will also get a permit. So, yes, even League D, featuring the likes of Gibraltar and Luxembourg, will produce a finalist.

The chances are someone like Macedonia, Belarus or Georgia will get that winning ticket – but what if one or two of those qualify by right via next year’s qualifiers? Luxembourg are top of their pool at the moment and if the league were to end now they’d be in the Euro 2020 playoffs.

There’s equality and there’s folly, but for Uefa’s sake, let’s hope a finals which is supposed to celebrate the very best in international football isn’t turned into a joke courtesy of their tinkering with the qualification criteria.

4 Of the two O’Neills, Martin has more to worry about
Is it really just two years since Ireland and Northern Ireland not only qualified for the European Championship, but then made it through to the last 16?

How times change.

Relegation to League C looks inevitable for both, although Martin O’Neill appears to have far more to deal with than namesake Michael.

The Republic have one point from their three matches but have mustered merely 18 efforts on goal in three terrible ties. Quality replacements for modest players aren’t on the horizon, there’s virtually no evidence that the O’Neill-Roy Keane double act is moving the nation on, and they could be in the doldrums for a while.

Northern Ireland don’t even have a point but still look the side to back at odds-against in a two-legged showdown with their neighbours.

They’ve banged off 46 efforts on goal in their three defeats, hit the woodwork twice in Bosnia last time out, play positively and at least boast a nucleus of youngsters who suggest they can succeed when the likes of Steve Davis and Aaron Hughes call it a day.

5 The Nations League is going only one way
So we go into the final two rounds of Nations League action, and of the 55 teams involved 51 still have something tangible to play for, be it a group win, promotion or avoiding relegation.

Last month several bookmakers reported Nations League weeks were similar to previous international weeks in terms of turnover so it will be interesting to see what a crunch double-header in November produces for the industry.

Scotland v Israel with plenty riding on it. Who’d have thought?

Many critics who regard the whole concept as a bad one will remain unconvinced but surely a competitive sporting event, at a time of the year when international football offered precious little, is a win-win for bookmakers and punters.