Portugal vs Slovenia prediction, betting tips and odds

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Where to watch Portugal vs Slovenia

You can watch Portugal vs Slovenia at Euro 2024 at 8pm on Monday, July 1, live on BBC One

Match prediction & best bet

Portugal to win 2-0
1pt 5-1 bet365

Portugal to win 3-0
1pt 15-2 general

Slovenia can be stubborn opponents but Portugal scored five goals in the group stage and should find a way past without reply. To squeeze value out of the match, the best approach may be to split stakes between 2-0 and 3-0 wins for Roberto Martinez's side.

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Portugal vs Slovenia odds

Portugal 2-5
Slovenia 9-1
Draw 15-4

Odds correct at time of publishing

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Portugal vs Slovenia predictions

Portugal were on the wrong end of the biggest upset in Euro history in terms of Fifa rankings at the end of this year's group stage but they should have few issues seeing off Slovenia in the last 16 in Frankfurt.

Roberto Martinez's side were beaten 2-0 by a vibrant Georgia in their final group game, snapping their 12-game winning streak in competitive matches.

But it is worth noting Portugal had already secured top spot in Group F heading into that match and Martinez rang the changes, resting Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes and Ruben Dias.

And while Georgia were disciplined at the back and innovative in attack, both of their goals were the result of errors from defender Antonio Silva.

For their opening knockout fixture, though, Portugal can be expected to deploy the same line-up which eased to a 3-0 win over Turkey on matchday two.

Having followed a last-gasp 2-1 victory over Czech Republic, the win over Turkey was Portugal's standout performance in the group stage and they clicked in the same way they did during Euro 2024 qualifying.

Portugal were the only side to win all ten of their matches in their qualifiers, scoring 36 goals and conceding just twice, and they have enviable depth in pretty much every position.

They have found themselves in the fiercer half of the draw and will face either France or Belgium in the quarter-finals if they progress but remain the team to watch for many punters.

Slovenia look soft last-16 opponents at first glance but they held England, Denmark and Serbia to draws in the group stage and beat Portugal 2-0 in a friendly in March.

They operate in a rigid 4-4-2 set-up, play with a low block, and look to hit teams on the counter-attack with Andraz Sporar and Benjamin Sesko lively in the final third.

Jaka Bijol has been one of the standout defenders in the tournament and goalkeeper Jan Oblak is a reliable last line of defence.

Against England they showed no interest in attacking, managing just one shot on target, and Portugal can expect to see a lot of the ball.

But there is more cohesion and balance to Portugal's attack than that of England's and only Germany managed more shots than Portugal's tally of 54 during the group stage.

Slovenia's playing style and the strength in Portugal's defence suggests the underdogs are unlikely to get on the scoresheet, so splitting stakes between a 2-0 win and a 3-0 win for Martinez's side looks best.

Key stat

Portugal have won 12 of their last 13 competitive games, conceding just five times in that run.

Portugal vs Slovenia team news

Portugal
Portugal are expected to recall a number of first-team players including Bernardo Silva, Ruben Dias and Joao Cancelo, while Rafael Leao is back from suspension.

Slovenia
Erik Janza is suspended and Jure Balkovec could take his place at left-back but no other changes are expected from Matjaz Kek's side.

Probable teams

Portugal (4-2-3-1): Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Pepe, Mendes; Palhinha, Vitinha; B Silva, Fernandes, Leao; Ronaldo.

Slovenia (4-4-2): Oblak; Karnicnik, Drkusic, Bijol, Balkovec; Stojanovic, Elsnik, Gnezda Cerin, Mlakar; Sporar, Sesko.

Inside info

Portugal

Star man Cristiano Ronaldo
Top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo
Penalty taker Cristiano Ronaldo
Card magnet Joao Palhinha
Assist ace Bruno Fernandes
Set-piece aerial threat Cristiano Ronaldo

Slovenia

Star man Benjamin Sesko
Top scorer Benjamin Sesko
Penalty taker Benjamin Sesko
Card magnet Adam Gnezda Cerin
Assist ace Adam Gnezda Cerin
Set-piece aerial threat Jaka Bijol

Match info

Fifa rankings
Portugal 6, Slovenia 57

Venue
Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt

Weather
Partly cloudy with highs of 19C.

Portugal vs Slovenia bet builder predictions

Slovenia under 0.5 goals
Slovenia can be expected to stick to their defensive game plan for this contest and they scored just twice in the group stage.

Cristiano Ronaldo to have two or more shots on target
Cristiano Ronaldo managed five shots on target for Portugal in the group stage.

Adam Gnezda Cerin to commit two or more fouls
No player committed more fouls than Adam Gnezda Cerin's tally of nine in the Euro 2024 group stage.

Pays out at 5-1 with bet365

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Published on 30 June 2024inEuro 2024