Chelsea v Lille predictions: Blues can keep grinding out the wins

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Chelsea v Lille in the last-16 of the Champions League.

Where to watch

BT Sport 2, 8pm Tuesday

Best bet

Chelsea & under 3.5 goals
1pt 21-20 Boyles, Coral

Team news

Chelsea
Ben Chilwell and Reece James are out. Callum Hudson-Odoi and Mason Mount are major doubts.

Lille
Renato Sanches (groin) should be fit to start. Angel Gomes is a doubt.

Match preview

Thomas Tuchel could be forgiven for not knowing what competition his side are involved in when they play Lille, never mind what day it is, although the one thing punters should be fairly clear on is that it might not be a routine win.

There's very little straightforward about Chelsea at the moment, other than the fact they are playing in a lot of different tournaments and just about getting the job done.

Over the last two weeks the Blues have been involved in Premier League, FA Cup and Club World Cup action and come Sunday they can add the EFL Cup to that list, as they take on Liverpool at Wembley in the final.

Before that there's the small matter of a return to the Champions League – a trophy Chelsea are defending if Tuchel can remember as far back as May – with this round-of-16 showdown at home to fading French champions Lille.

Presuming there's no Covid issues, jet lag and the air conditioning in the home dressing room works, Chelsea should dot up. Odds of 1-3 very much cement that idea.

But easy? That's less certain given Jocelyn Gourvennec's men arrive at the Bridge having kept a pair of clean sheets against Montpellier and Metz and Chelsea are struggling to score goals. And in the case of Romelu Lukaku, struggling to even touch the ball.

The idea of a Chelsea win is fair enough. Lille are a million miles away from the side, then under different management, who stunned PSG and the rest of Ligue 1 last term. But back the hosts to win a low-scoring game might be a way in.

Tuchel's men look as though they're running close to empty yet still keep grinding out results. They did so in the Middle East in the Club World Cup, and did so again at Crystal Palace on Saturday when they always looked the better team but could muster just nine shots against well-organised opponents. Hakim Ziyech eventually broke through minutes from time.

The supply lines to the front men are broken in the absence of their better wing-backs and Mason Mount, and Lille, with 38-year-old former Southampton stalwart and European champion Jose Fonte marshalling their barricades, will be tough to roll over.

Lille are likely to have less of the ball and the evidence is they won't be able to do much with it. Their top scorers, Jonathan David and Burak Yilmaz, haven't found the net since before Christmas and as a team they have scored only 32 goals in 25 league games.

They did, of course, win at Sevilla and Wolfsburg in the group stage and have grown as the season has gone on. Against that, Chelsea produced three wins to nil in their three home group-stage assignments and are unbeaten at the Bridge since September.

How Chelsea shape up – Tuchel went for a flat four at Selhurst Park – and who the German deploys, notably in attack, will be fascinating. However he squares it, take Chelsea to grind out another win.

Key stat

Chelsea have lost just one of their last 17 cup ties in all competitions

Inside info

Chelsea

Penalty taker Kai Havertz
Free-kick wizard Mason Mount/Marcos Alonso
Set-piece aerial threat Antonio Rudiger
Card magnet Marcos Alonso

Lille

Penalty taker Jonathan David/Burak Yilmaz
Free-kick wizard Jonathan Bamba/Xeka
Set-piece aerial threat Sven Botman
Card magnet Mehmet Celik/Benjamin Andre

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