Aston Villa v Newcastle predictions, betting preview and football tips

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Newcastle on Saturday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event, 8pm Saturday

Best bet

Aston Villa & under 3.5 goals
1pt 5-4 Betfair
Click here to add this selection to your Betfair betslip (online only)

Team news

Aston Villa
John McGinn is suspended. Wesley and Trezeguet are out.

Newcastle
Ryan Fraser is available after a ban. Allan Saint-Maximin (Covid-19) is fit again.

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Match preview

Enraged at the manner of their defeat by Manchester City, Aston Villa look worth backing to take out their anger on a poor Newcastle side.

First-hurdle FA Cup exits have handed these teams a window to play a fixture that was originally called off in December, and the timing looks just right for Dean Smith's men.

Villa look a strong team whose results are patchy but the general level of their performances is decent enough, while Newcastle look a shambles.

If odds of around 1-2 Villa don't excite you (and they shouldn't), take the Villans to win a match featuring under 3.5 goals.

There certainly don't look to be too many goals in this one.

Newcastle haven't found the net in any of their last five road trips, a run going back before Christmas. You have to go back to November for the last time one of Steve Bruce's strikers found the net.

And that's their problem. They have been set up not to lose and look toothless going forward, even more so minus Allan Saint-Maximin, Having the Frenchman available is a plus but merely papers over some alarming cracks.

That made it all the more remarkable when Bruce, normally a model of stubborn defensive organisation, suddenly went gung-ho at Arsenal of all places. He opted for a 4-4-2 shape and played four forwards but the result was their most gutless, wretched effort yet. The Gunners had 20 efforts on goal in a 3-0 romp, while Newcastle managed just one shot on target.

So will it be back to the drawing board for Bruce, with the return of the 5-4-1 and Callum Wilson in splendid isolation?

The problem is they are now becoming consistently poor. The 0-0 draw against Liverpool seems more and more like a fluke result set amidst a landscape featuring a 5-2 drubbing at Leeds, a League Cup surrender at Brentford and horror shows against Fulham, Sheffield United and now Arsenal.

Newcastle were occasionally worth a punt at big prices on the road because they carried a threat on the counter, but they genuinely look clueless now.

No wins in nine games, no goals in their last three, Villa will be gutted if they don't capitalise on the visitors' awfulness and get back to winning ways themselves.

Smith's men have lost three in a row, but against Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City, so those setbacks can be forgiven.

Indeed, they played well against both United and City – the two league games – and were on course for a point, maybe more, at City but for a moment's poor judgement from Tyrone Mings.

Smith felt wrongly wronged but should look on the plus side. Their Covid-19 crisis has passed, Ross Barkley is fit, Jack Grealish continues to shine, his team looks balanced and their performances have been good. Three points against the Magpies should put a smile back on his face.

Key stat

Newcastle's last eight matches have produced only 12 goals.

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