What is the ideal July Stakes prep? Graeme Rodway thinks he has found the answer

2.25 Newmarket
Tattersalls July Stakes (Group 2) | 6f | 2yo | ITV3/RTV

Since 2010, seven winners of this race had competed at Ascot on their latest start, a statistic that is likely to be enhanced as this year’s market is dominated by those exiting the royal meeting. However, they contested several different races over a range of trips, so what has been the ideal prep?

In the same 11-year period, horses who were stepping up in distance have performed best. Six of the winners (from 38 qualifiers, 16 per cent strike-rate) had run in 5f races on their latest outing and proved profitable to back blind (+£1.75 to £1 level stakes).

Compare that to those who had competed over 6f on their latest start and the figures look even better – five winners from 52 runners (ten per cent), producing a level-stakes loss of -£8.15.

Project Dante appears best of those stepping up in trip. He caught the eye making late headway when a neck behind Perfect Power in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot, form that was franked when runner-up Go Bears Go won the Railway at the Curragh next time.

Project Dante (Graham Lee, yellow cap): won a 5f novice at York earlier this yearCredit: Edward Whitaker

Dig Two also steps up from the minimum trip after finishing second in the Windsor Castle. He won the race on his side of the track, but crossed the line in second behind Chipotle, who quickened well against the other rail.

Jadhlaan missed Ascot but similarly tackles an extra furlong. He has three-quarters of a length to find with Project Dante, who finished two places ahead of him on his debut at York.

So what about those who are already proven at the trip? Eldrickjones sets the standard with a Racing Post Rating of 105 following his second to Berkshire Shadow in the Coventry Stakes. He had Ebro River (fifth), Tolstoy (tenth) and The Organiser (12th) behind him that day.

The Richard Hannon stable has saddled five winners from 11 runners in this race since 2010. Lusail has followed a different programme having landed a novice event over 7f at this track just 19 days ago.

No horse since 2010 has successfully dropped in trip to win this, but then not many have tried. The three who have beat an average of just 29.44 per cent of their rivals home.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

'66-1 Ascot second was no surprise – he works really well'

Trainer Roger Fell believes he has a "big chance" of recording a first Group-race success as Eldrickjones looks to translate his impressive homework to Newmarket.

The son of Cotai Glory outran odds of 66-1 to finish second in the Coventry Stakes, but that was no shock to Fell, who reports he is continuing to sparkle at his Yorkshire base.

Fell said: "That run didn't surprise me, I thought he might've won given what I'd seen him do at home. He had us all really excited going to Ascot and we're excited again. If he performs as well as he did at Ascot then he'd have a big chance."

Eldrickjones (white silks): second to Berkshire Shadow at Royal AscotCredit: Alan Crowhurst

He joked: "I've had a Listed winner but not a Group winner. If he wins I suppose I can retire."

Bryan Smart, another Yorkshire-based trainer, also runs a placed horse from the royal meeting. Project Dante was a fast-finishing third in the Norfolk, so the step up to six furlongs should suit.

"We're really happy with him," Smart said. "He was bucking and squealing this [Wednesday] morning, so we know he's in good form. He's going there with a chance even though it looks a competitive race."

What they say

Hugo Palmer, trainer of Dig Two and Ebro River
I think it's the right race for both horses. Dig Two was off the bridle a long way out in the Windsor Castle. The faster the ground the better for him, but if it got really rattling we might contemplate waiting for Goodwood with Ebro River. The Coventry didn't work out for him so I think his run can be marked up – he ran a big race with everything developing away from him.

Angus Gold, racing manager for Shadwell Stud, owner of Jadhlaan
He took a while to break his maiden and Franny [Norton, jockey] thought he had the speed to do well at five furlongs, I thought he'd always want six furlongs. On pedigree you'd expect him to get the trip well and hopefully he can prove that to be the case.

Thady Gosden, joint trainer of Tolstoy
He was stuck out on the wing in the Coventry at Royal Ascot last time so couldn't really get involved. He's come out of that in great shape and he should enjoy the likely fast ground.
Reporting by James Stevens

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