Why the fillies' allowance could prove decisive - analysis and trainer quotes for a competitive Listed event

Scheduling a Listed 1m2f race for older horses a day after a Group 3 1m2f race for older horses was run just 45 miles away was asking for trouble.

Unsurprisingly, three of the eight horses declared here were also left in Thursday evening's Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown, including the two likely favourites.

Although late changes in the weather and ground conditions could alter things, Royal Rhyme was set to run at Sandown while Isle Of Jura is being aimed here. Which means this field includes at least one horse who seems to have taken his form to a new level this year.

Isle Of Jura was an impressive winner of mile handicaps at Newbury and Newmarket last July. Given a break and then stepped up to middle distances, the four-yearold won four of his five starts in Bahrain between December and March.

Evaluating the strength of that form is not simple and he will encounter easier ground here. Yet he is clearly on the up and his come-from-behind, do-just-enough style means there could be more to come.

Yet a 3lb penalty means he is conceding weight to a rival with significantly better British form in Mujtaba, whose handicap wins in 2022 were gained off much higher marks.

The trouble is that he was off the track for ten months with colic after finishing second in the Huxley Stakes at Chester last spring and has been well below his best in two runs this season. Fitting him with blinkers here is not exactly an endorsement of his current form.

By contrast, Sea Of Roses has been running very close to her best this season judged on Racing Post ratings, including last time here over 1m4f — a trip which seems to tax her stamina judged on previous efforts.

Dropped back in distance and having a tactical versatility that means Oisin Murphy can react easily to events in what may be a messy affair, she could make full use of the 5lb fillies' allowance.

Going update

The ground was officially good, good to soft in in places on Thursday and no rain was forecast. Clerk of the course Ed Arkell said: "It's a dry, sunny day with a breeze and I'd say we'll be good or just on the easy side on Friday. It would be the first time we've raced on good ground or quicker since last June."

What they say

George Scott, trainer of Isle Of Jura
He had a wonderful winter and seems to have come back from Bahrain in particularly good shape. He’s been training well and we’re looking forward to getting him started back.

Jane Chapple-Hyam, trainer of Claymore
They didn't get as much rain as I wanted but he's in good order and he's down in class.

Angus Gold, racing manager to Shadwell Estate, owner of Mujtaba
He's in good form at home, but he didn't seem to put his best foot forward at Newbury last time so we're putting blinkers on to help him concentrate.

David Simcock, trainer of Empress Wu
She's in good order. This is a starting point but she's got course form and won't mind the ground.

Oisin Murphy, rider of Sea Of Roses
She ran very well at Goodwood last time and she's really come in her coat now. She has pace and she's run in some tough races.

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