'The form of his Goodwood race is very strong' - key quotes and analysis for Thirsk's big-field sprint handicap

Thirsk is the sort of track that should have more big-field, high-quality sprint handicaps. The course is flat and fast. It suits front-runners but they can, and occasionally do, overdo things. And barring the odd golden highway on the stands' rail, it tends to be a fair test.

It is no great surprise that this race has plenty of early pace. If you do not have that over 5f at Thirsk, your chances are already out of your hands to a degree. 

It is notable in this race that a particularly high concentration of the pace is in the low-numbered stalls. Hiya Maite (stall two), the irrepressible Tees Spirit (three), Mattice (six) and Changeofmind (seven) all race on the speed. 

Contrast with many of the most obviously interesting horses in the race being drawn high. American Affair (ten) has already run with credit in a Sunday Series handicap this month. Fair Wind (15) beat the Dash winner when last seen at Goodwood. Looking For Lynda (17) has form figures of 323 in Class 2 handicaps on his last three starts. Tatterstall (12) is finally building on the promise he showed when winning last year's 3YO Dash. Lethal Nymph's (16) mark keeps dropping, while he gets ever more accustomed to racing over 5f.

Looking For Lynda and Tatterstall are pace angles themselves. It shapes like a race that could break down into two separate groups. If that happens, consider taking one on each wing and/or hunting out extra places for each-way bets. Most firms have each-way betting to five places and he sponsors are going down to sixth spot. Those near the pace who are likely to take a lead, like Vintage Clarets in one or Lethal Nymph in 16, could offer a bit of value.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Going latest

The going was good, good to soft on Saturday afternoon when clerk of the course James Sanderson said: "We're going to get some rain this afternoon. There might be another 5mm before tomorrow morning and that, I suspect, would push it into genuine good to soft.

"It's going to be cloudy but essentially fair on raceday. I'm not really seeing rain on any of the radar pictures that should bother us. It's not going to be a flaming June day but it's going to be reasonably fair which I'll take."

What they say

Adrian Nicholls, trainer of Tees Spirit
He was dropped a couple of pounds after Haydock and came out of the race well. He wouldn't want it too soft but the ground seems to be holding up. He's one of the highest rated in the race but he's run well in handicaps before against similar opposition.

Declan Carroll, trainer of Changeofmind
He's been training well and would appreciate a bit of cut in the ground if the rain comes.

Sam Hoskins, racing manager of Kennet Valley Syndicates, owners of Fair Wind
The form of his Goodwood race is very strong with Dream Composer winning the Dash. I'm really happy with his draw in 15 and we've got the excellent Danny Tudhope on board. He's potentially still unexposed and is getting better with racing. He'll appreciate any dig in the ground and should have a decent chance.

Michael Dods, trainer of Tatterstall
He's a fast-ground horse and the handicapper didn't miss him last time when he won at Catterick.

Jim Goldie, trainer of American Affair
Everything has gone well. The draw should be fine and with a bit of luck in running, he should be thereabouts. He's versatile in terms of ground, so any rain won't be an issue.
Reporting by Jonathan Harding

Read the rest of our Sunday previews:

3.05 Chantilly: Will Tamfana or Dance Sequence waltz to Classic glory in an open-looking Prix de Diane?  

3.16 Gowran: 'This trip will suit her' - Sluice the obvious starting point to give Joseph O'Brien a second success in trappy handicap  

4.15 Thirsk: 'This is the next step forward' - can Paborus continue his good form for Ed Bethell on his handicap debut? 

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