Why does Keith Melrose like the look of the home challenge in Borders National?

3.20 Kelso
Persimmon Homes Scottish Borders National Handicap Chase | 4m½f | 5yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Sometimes in this slot you will see pleas for punters to be given the tools we need for completely dispassionate analysis – accurate sectionals, time-based going and so on. None of it is to say that there is not room for the more touchy-feely approach to finding winners and the Borders National provides a strong example.

While resisting the Hawick Boys narrative of pushing back English raiding parties, there is every reason to be interested in the two Scottish-trained runners in the race. Duc De Grissay goes for Sandy Thomson, whose affinity with this can be inferred from as little as a glance at the recent roll of honour.

Thomson admits he targets the Borders National and it is notable Caventara, who was already trading around even money when he fell with over a circuit to go in last year's running, instead runs in the 2m7½f handicap chase on the card. It is an implicit vote of confidence in the unexposed Duc De Grissay.

He hardly needs it. On his chasing debut in February, he finished five and a half lengths behind Saint Sonnet (now BHA-rated 147) and a length and three-quaters behind Crixus's Escape (136). He runs here off 118 and has already attempted a handicap, but was set too much to do in the Durham National, nonetheless shaping well and likely to be spot-on for this as a result.

Similarly unexposed is Dino Boy, who was bought by Raymond Anderson Green over the summer and has been sent to Iain Jardine. Along with Exit To Where, he is among the first horses Anderson Green has sent to Jardine's Dumfriesshire yard.

Dino Boy improved on three runs over fences for Nigel Twiston-Davies last year and was strong in the betting for his stable debut at Carlisle. He was held up in deep ground that day and never stood a chance, but he did manage to make brief headway before paying the price. He will not have been pitched into this company lightly.

The northern hopes do not all rest on the Scottish side of the border. Looking Well is lightly raced for an 11-year-old and is owed a race like this; he might have won in 2018 but for falling and likewise the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh earlier that year. Bigirononhiship fits into a similar category, with only 11 chase runs behind him, but he at least got his big day in this race last year.

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The early market has last year's Southern National winner One Of Us and Just Your Type as the dangers. The former has pulled up the last two times and the latter was essentially gifted his win at Uttoxeter last time by runner-up Indy Five.

Iwilldoit is feared at least as much. Sam Thomas is a progressive trainer and this seven-year-old made significant improvement to win here on his chasing debut between Christmas and New Year last year. He has generally kept good company and it seems little coincidence that he returns here for his reappearance, so expect him to be as fit as can be first time up.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

What they say

Warren Greatrex, trainer of Bob Mahler and Gangster
Bob Mahler gets the trip very well and the ground will be fine for him. He has two Ps next to his name but he always needs his first run and the saddle slipped at Haydock, so I'm not too concerned by that and he ticks a lot of the boxes. I'd be surprised if he's not right in contention. Gangster tries the trip for the first time and that could bring quite a bit of improvement. We've left the headgear off and he's a good horse on his day, but Bob Mahler would be the safer option.

Sam Thomas: runs course winner IwilldoitCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Sam Thomas, trainer of Iwilldoit
He's been unlucky with cancellations since he won at this track last year and goes there in great order. If the race was over three miles I'd be very confident but this trip is an unknown. This race fitted well for his return and I hope he'll be one for the Welsh National when he's older.

Charlie Longsdon, trainer of Just Your Type
An extreme test of stamina is what he wants and he was a good second last year. He has a good reversal at the weights with the winner and nicer ground than last year will suit him better, so I'm hoping for a big run.

Rose Dobbin, trainer of Bigirononhiship and Coole Hall
We're hopeful Bigirononhiship can repeat last year's win. He did it in great style although he's off a 10lb higher mark and it looks competitive. We were delighted with his return at Ayr but he'll need to jump slicker. Coole Hall has so much ability. He didn't enjoy being ridden handy over hurdles last time, so we're going to drop him out and hopefully the blinkers will help him.

Sandy Thomson, trainer of Duc De Grissay
He ran a really nice race at Sedgefield and there's lots in his favour. It's a race I've always had in the back of my mind for him as he has the right sort of profile, albeit he's a lot younger than Harry The Viking and Neptune Equester who won the race multiple times for us. He has a good a chance as any off a nice weight.
Reporting by Jack Haynes

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