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'We've taken the easier option' - can the classy Luccia maintain her unbeaten record?
Turn the clock back to 2019 and Nicky Henderson saddled red-hot 15-8 favourite Epatante in this Grade 2, but she got worked up before the race and could finish only ninth. The event was won by 50-1 outsider Eglantine Du Seuil, and if there were ever a race that demonstrated the difficulties of betting, that is the one.
Anyone who backed Epatante must feel robbed looking back given she went on to land the Champion Hurdle only a year later.
Epatante was clearly the best horse in the race – she went on to be rated 12lb higher than the winner on Racing Post Ratings – but she still found a way to be beaten. Henderson has had 11 straight losers in the race since its inception in 2016 and now bids to break the streak with Luccia.
Luccia has a remarkably similar profile to Epatante. Both came in following four straight wins and on the back of a victory at Exeter, but Epatante had a quicker turnaround. She had just 23 days between her win and this race, whereas Luccia returns from a full month’s break.
Henderson has saddled 14 festival winners in the last five years and 13 of them were coming in following at least four weeks off the track. That suggests the slightly longer absence might be ideal for Luccia and she is evidently the one that they all have to beat.
Willie Mullins has won five of the seven runnings and Lot Of Joy looks like his big hope. She was a smart Flat performer rated 96 in that sphere and has steadily progressed with each of her three starts over hurdles, culminating in an easy victory in a maiden at Fairyhouse on her last run.
That leaves her with plenty to find on hurdles form, but her ability from the Flat tells us she should be up to this level over obstacles and Mullins has been the king in this contest.
Henry de Bromhead was responsible for Telmesomethinggirl, who won this race two years ago. He saddles five runners and the pick on RPRs is Foxy Girl, who was impressive when bolting up by four lengths in a maiden hurdle at Limerick over Christmas and returns from an 80-day break.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway
'Luccia was impressive at Exeter last time'
Connections of Luccia hope to be rewarded for their decision to avoid the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in search of calmer waters.
The five-year-old is unbeaten in four starts, including when winning a Listed novice hurdle at Exeter last month by 11 lengths.
"I wasn't that tempted by the Supreme," said the trainer. "But that's not to say I don't rate her highly – we've just taken the easier option.
"I don't expect the ground, if it's soft, to be a problem because she won a Listed bumper last season when the conditions were testing.
"She handled it that day and any rain that comes might loosen and freshen the ground. She was then impressive at Exeter last time."
Henderson also runs Under Control, a JP McManus-owned four-year-old who got off the mark in Britain 13 days ago, and last year's second Ahorsewithnoname.
"Ahorsewithnoname had a productive time on the Flat, but didn't shine at Wincanton over Christmas. She seems in good form so let's go for it.
"Under Control gets a nice weight allowance as a four-year-old and won nicely at Newbury. It was her first run in Britain and this is a tall order, but she won easily."
'It's very special to have runners in the race'
Henry de Bromhead has five chances to secure a poignant success in the race named after his son Jack, who died in a pony racing accident last year.
The trainer, successful with Honeysuckle on her final start in the Mares' Hurdle on the opening day, said: "It's very special to have runners in the race, but as we said on Tuesday, the fairytale results don't always come true. We're going to give it our best shot."
The market suggests his leading chance is with the unbeaten Magical Zoe, but the trainer also runs Belle The Lioness, Foxy Girl, Ladybank and Still Ciel.
"Magical Zoe seems really good – we're delighted with her," he said. "We put her away for the race after Down Royal in November and she has travelled over well.
"Belle The Lioness has done very little wrong. We had to ride her the way we did when she won at Thurles, but she's probably better sitting in and her form before that run was much stronger when she finished second to Liberty Dance, as well as her second at Punchestown.
"Foxy Girl was a good winner at Limerick and the horse she beat won well at Fairyhouse afterwards. She's a lovely mare and is in good form, and she'd like a nice ease in the ground, while Ladybank surprised us at Punchestown and we felt she deserved to take her chance. She lacks experience but will improve for that run.
"Still Ciel has some nice bits of form. She ran well in a Thurles Grade 3 when she didn't quite get home. If you take a line on her form in Killarney with Bella Scintilla, she is entitled to be here."
What they say
Jamie Snowden trainer of You Wear It Well
She's been progressive and won the Sandown Grade 2 Love Envoi won last year before she went on to win this. Her only defeat this season was against Hermes Allen in the Challow, but that's strong form. She's got the classiest form and a bit of rain might put more emphasis on stamina, but she's not devoid of speed.
Stephen Carey, trainer of Banntown Girl
She ran a very good race at Leopardstown and this will be a tough task against some really good mares, but hopefully she can run a nice race.
Ben Clarke, trainer of Endless Escape
She's four from four and deserves this step up in grade. She pulls herself up a bit when she hits the front, which is why she has not looked more impressive. She's a seven-year-old novice so she's a big, strong mare who loves soft ground and has an each-way chance.
Gordon Elliott, trainer of Halka Du Tabert and Shecouldbeanything
They are two unexposed and improving mares. The track and the trip should suit Halka Du Tabert. Shecouldbeanything has some really solid form and could sneak into the placings with a bit of luck.
Jessica Harrington, trainer of Jetara
She has coped with soft ground all winter, but I wouldn't want it too testing. She's a beautifully bred filly. She's in great form and we know she stays very well.
Paul Townend, rider of Lot Of Joy
She's got a bit of experience over hurdles and is learning to race like a jumps mare. Luccia looks the standout in this but we are getting weight off her.
Milton Harris, trainer of Mullenbeg
She's a bit underestimated in the market. She was fourth behind the favourite Luccia when attempting to give her weight in a bumper and beat You Wear It Well on her first start at Ludlow. We wouldn't want too much rain, but she's a lively outsider after producing a career-best performance against the boys last time.
Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Poetic Music
She loves it at Cheltenham and was sixth in the Champion Bumper last year. Hopefully Paddy Brennan can work his magic and end up in the places.
Tony Mullins, trainer of Princess Zoe
If the rain comes, I think it will enhance our chance and we're confident of a huge run. It's a worry she's only had one run over hurdles. The drop in trip should not be an issue and she has plenty of speed. We're a little anxious she's not been left-handed for us, but there's no reason why it wouldn't suit.
Noel Meade, trainer of The Model Kingdom
She travelled over well. She's genuine and was behind a smart winner last time. We'll give it a go, but I’m not sure if she'll get up the hill.
Nicky Martin, trainer of Inspiratrice
She's tough as old boots. She won well at Taunton and I think she would have placed had she not been hampered at Doncaster. She stays and loves soft ground so she deserves to be there.
Reporting by Jonathan Harding
Thursday previews:
1.30 Cheltenham: Can Mighty Potter live up to the hype for Gordon Elliott in red-hot Turners?
5.30 Cheltenham: 'I've had this race in mind for a while' - key quotes and analysis for the Kim Muir
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- 11.30 Fairyhouse: 'He looks the pick of ours' - Triumph Hurdle hero Majborough makes chasing debut for Willie Mullins
- Christmas crackers everywhere you look as Il Ridoto and friends head up ultra-competitive Cheltenham card
- 2.25 Cheltenham: Master Chewy up against familiar foes as he bids to bounce back from Tingle Creek fall
- 1.50 Cheltenham: 'This has been the plan for some time' - top trainers on their big December Gold Cup hopes
- 3.35 Cheltenham: can Joyeuse live up to her pedigree and prove a class apart for Nicky Henderson off a basement BHA rating?