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Is a 22-length winning margin enough to give us an Oaks certainty? Soul Sister may have something to say about that

There is not a lot of context in 22 lengths of fresh air. Had the distance between Savethelastdance and runner-up There's The Door in the Cheshire Oaks been punctuated with horses, it would have been much more straightforward to infer what the winning performance was worth.

So naturally questions about the merit of her win will arise, especially now she has to go and justify short odds in the Oaks.

Quantitative methods of analysis like handicapping and time analysis can smooth over these gaps in the form book, but 22 lengths on soft ground over a mile and a half amounts to 4.5 seconds, or 33lb on the handicapping scale. You need more than a bit of Polyfilla for that, no matter how good your model might be.

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Keith MelroseBetting editor

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