How a low draw could be the key to unlocking this Wolverhampton sprint

2.40 Wolverhampton
Betway Handicap | 5f | 4yo+ | SKY

There have been 31 5f sprint handicaps with 11 runners on standard Tapeta at Wolverhampton since the beginning of 2019 and the average winning draw is 4.7.

23 per cent of the winners came from stall one, 13 per cent from stall two and 13 per cent from stall four. The opening betting on this race sees the Mark Loughnane-trained Buy Me Back (stall two) and the Phil Kirby-trained Alsvinder (stall four) at the front of the market. Both are capable of racing prominently which may automatically give the pair a tactical advantage.

David Probert renews a winning association aboard the four-year-old filly Buy Me Back, who won well over the 5f trip at Lingfield this month.

She has a 4lb higher mark to overcome in a slightly better contest, although the switch to Tapeta shouldn't be an issue as she wasn't beaten far over 6f here in December.

Conversely, the eight-year-old Alsvinder ran well to finish a close second in a slightly better race at Southwell a fortnight ago and the drop back to 5f on this course will suit from a historically favourable mark. He is a course-and-distance winner who finished a close second over this trip from a 6lb higher mark and a similar draw in November.

There are few in here who have gone quickly on the front-end in the past, and the David Evans-trained filly A Go Go is the most likely to try and dominate from stall three. Dazzling Des, Camachess and Tathmeen would be the most likely beneficiaries if they were to go too hard up front.

Dave Randall, tipster and analyst

What they say

Mark Loughnane, trainer of Buy Me Back
She's in good form and won really well at Lingfield last time. That was a lower grade and we're taking her up now with a penalty. Her rating has been higher than this not too long ago and she should run well. She's got a good draw, a good jockey and we're really looking forward to getting her out again.

Mark Loughnane, trainer of Buy Me Back: 'we're really looking forward to getting her out again'Credit: Debbie Burt

George Scott, trainer of Shoot To Kill
He ran a little fresh at Newcastle last time after a break but we've been pleased with him since in his work and he has gone well at this track before. Provided he holds a nice position I can't see why he wouldn't run well. He's a very talented horse who could end up in higher grades and if everything falls right he's capable of winning off this mark.

Antony Brittain, trainer of Tathmeen
He hasn't won for a while and hasn't been dealt the best draw in this race as he's in stall eight of 11. He's a hold-up horse who needs plenty of luck in running, which is something you need at Wolverhampton when you run there with those tactics. The pace will have to fall right and the gaps have to fall right but he's in good form and he keeps hitting the bar at the moment. He's certainly got the form to be competitive but we'll just need that stroke of luck in the race.

Reporting by Tom Ward

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