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Previews22 June 2024

'He will love the ground and the distance' - who will come out on top in this stamina-sapping contest?

Ryan Moore rides his sixth winner of the week on Dawn Rising
Dawn Rising: winner of last year's Queen Alexandra StakesCredit: Alan Crowhurst

This race is an anomaly in more ways than one. It’s the longest in the Flat calendar, run over a trip more fitting to Cheltenham than Ascot, and is also a conditions event which means there is a broad range of abilities on show without the range of weights to bring them together.

The Racing Post Ratings of the winners in the last ten years tells its own story. Pallasator (2018) and Stratum (2022) are the highest rated with RPRs of 107, but go back only four years to 2020 and Who Dares Wins was able to win despite registering just 94.

It’s rare to see a race where there is 13lb between the highest and lowest-rated winners, but that’s what the Queen Alexandra gives us and it’s probably because stamina can be just as important as ability. It’s the extreme distance, and not the weights, that brings them together.

That goes some way to explaining why Dawn Rising is at the head of the market despite being rated 9lb inferior to Tashkhan on RPRs. Dawn Rising is a proven stayer having won this last year and has been trained for a repeat by Joseph O’Brien.

His stamina will get him a long way again, but it’s possible to argue that Run For Oscar should have beaten him 12 months ago. He got stuck on the inside at a vital stage just as Dawn Rising kicked for home and couldn’t peg back the deficit despite staying on for third.

It will be a fascinating rematch and, when you throw in an Emmet Mullins-trained runner in Postileo to boot, we’re left with the eclectic mix you would expect of a typical Queen Alexandra.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway


Run For Oscar back for another shot at Ascot glory

Age doesn't tend to be a barrier in the Queen Alexandra Stakes and Run For Oscar will bid to emulate Stratum (2022), Pallasator (2018) and Oriental Fox (2017) by taking the 2m5½f event as a nine-year-old.

The former Cesarewitch winner ran a huge race last season when beaten two and three-quarter lengths by the reopposing Dawn Rising given he endured a terrible passage and was never able to fully open up his considerable stride.

Charles Byrnes: trainer of Queen Alexandra hopeful Run For Oscar
Charles Byrnes: trainer of Queen Alexandra hopeful Run For OscarCredit: Edward Whitaker

Maxime Guyon is an eyecatching jockey booking and trainer Charles Byrnes is hoping this unique test can play to Run For Oscar's strengths again. He said: "He's in good form and ran very well in the race last year. He's not getting any younger but he enjoys this sort of trip."


What they say

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of Dawn Rising, Magellan Strait and Uxmal
Dawn Rising has had two runs in preparation and if he can come back to something like the form of his win last year that would give him a live each-way chance. Uxmal has prepared well after a nice win at Killarney. He comes here in good form. Magellan Strait will love the ground and the distance and is in good form.

Emmet Mullins, trainer of Postileo
It was a good run in the Vintage Crop and he hasn't ran badly at this meeting twice. He had another good run here when third in a Group 3 in October so he seems to take to the course well enough.

Emmet Mullins: "If any of my owners happen to win money punting on the horses, they can look after me if they want. No money leaves my pocket to back horses."
Emmet Mullins: runs Postileo in the Queen Alexandra StakesCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Tim Palin, racing manager to Middleham Park Racing, part-owners of Nachtgeist
He was a German Derby hope at one time I believe and it will be interesting to see how he gets on over an extreme distance.
Reporting by Conor Fennelly


Read more Saturday previews:

2.30 Ascot: 'She looked a classy filly and her jockey really liked her' - key quotes and analysis for the Chesham

3.05 Ascot: 'We'll find out just how good he is' - Continuous and Middle Earth clash in a high-class Hardwicke Stakes 

3.45 Ascot: can William Buick break new ground on Mill Stream or will Kinross make it third time lucky in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes?  

4.25 Ascot: 'He's always shown us plenty of pace' - can River Tiber reverse Irish 2,000 Guineas form with Haatem in Jersey Stakes?  

5.05 Ascot: 'We've saved him for this - I think he’ll run very well' - who fancies their chances in a wide-open Wokingham? 

5.40 Ascot: 'If he gets into a nice rhythm, he'll run a big race' - quotes and analysis for the Golden Gates Stakes 


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Deputy betting editor
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