Follow these rules and you will have a greater chance than ever of picking the National winner

We know it will change the race, but we do not know exactly what effect it will have. With the field size limit reduced from 40 to 34, this year's Grand National is the latest to succumb to shrinkflation, the phenomenon where you get less product for the same price as before.

The serious and admirable aim of cutting the Grand National field by 15 per cent, and of reducing the distance by 60 yards, is to enhance the safety of the runners. Shrinking the field is one of the effects that works in theory and on precedent. The rate of fallers and unseats correlates with the number of runners. Although it is yet to be tested in racing's most famous and unique arena.

Another assumed effect is a reduction in low-weighted runners. Taking out numbers 35 to 40 raises the bar for entry, which is determined by each horse's handicap mark. The floor has indeed gone up, but not dramatically. The BHA mark of Kitty's Light, the last horse in, is 146. In the last 40-runner Nationals, 142 or 143 was typical, with 145 the previous high in 2021.