Analysis and trainer quotes for exciting clash of star juveniles in Middle Park

3.00 NewmarketJuddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) | 6f | 2yo colts | ITV4/RTV

One of the stories of the Flat year has been the remarkable start to the stallion career of Mehmas, who is miles ahead in the race to be the leading first-season sire.

Having sired 41 winners, he has nearly triple the total of his nearest pursuer Kodi Bear (14) and three of his four highest-ranked sons on Racing Post Ratings line up here, bidding to give him a first Group 1.

Minzaal and Supremacy share the honour of being top-rated, having both achieved RPRs of 114 when winning their latest starts.

Minzaal scored an impressive success in the Gimcrack but only one winner of that York race has come on to land this in the last ten seasons and that was Astaire in 2013.

Supremacy represents the Richmond Stakes form and again only one winner of that race, Shalaa in 2015, has gone on to land this since 2010.

Method: Frankie Dettori takes over in the saddle on unbeaten coltCredit: Francesca Altoft Photography

However, Mehmas himself finished third here after winning at Goodwood and Golden Horde was a neck second last year for Supremacy’s stable after his Richmond victory. Evidently it has become a route trainer Clive Cox likes to take with his best juveniles.

One link between Minzaal and Supremacy is that, while both won impressively last time, neither of those races is working out particularly well. Only one subsequent winner has emerged from the Gimcrack and Richmond combined and that was Flying Childers scorer Ubettabelieveit, who failed to show his best behind Minzaal at York and finished tailed off.

It appears they were substandard runnings, so both horses will probably need to step up again.

Supremacy: likely to need improvement from his Richmond winCredit: Edward Whitaker

Method is the third representative for Mehmas and he is arguably the most exciting juvenile lining up this weekend. He comes with a tall reputation and is already on his way to fulfilling it.

The Martyn Meade-trained colt achieved an RPR of 106 when winning the Listed Rose Bowl at Newbury last time but that race has worked out nicely. The well-beaten runner-up Mighty Gurkha has since won a Group 3 at Kempton and he was well clear of the rest at Newbury.

Method might have won in a lower grade than Minzaal and Supremacy, but his was a strong race for the class and he can be considered a lot closer to them than the RPRs suggest.

Ryan Moore rode Method first time at Doncaster, Oisin Murphy took over at Newbury last time, but it's Frankie Dettori who gets the call for the big day and he has been associated with Meade’s best horses. Dettori is 6-18 for the stable and 3-8 in Group 1s, with all three wins on stable star Advertise. Let's just hope the rain stays away and Method runs.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

John Murphy, trainer of Charterhouse
He's in good form. Hopefully the ground won't go soft as he's better on better ground. He ran well at the Curragh and we're happy with how he came out of the race. He showed plenty of speed that day, so we'll see what he can do coming back to six furlongs.

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Lipizzaner
He won at Navan on his first start back after a break. We always liked him and we think he's improved a good bit since.

Jessica Harrington, trainer of Lucky Vega
It's always been one of the targets for him. They've had a bit of rain and we're happy with the ground for him. He seems to be in great form and didn't have much of a race in the National Stakes at the Curragh. We're hoping for the best and if we could put another Group 1 on the page it would be brilliant.

Owen Burrows, trainer of Minzaal
We chucked him in at the deep end a bit in the Gimcrack but he didn't let us down and did it nicely. This was always the obvious next step. This is the best of the bunch this year in the two-year-old sprinting division and we'll see where we sit in that division. God willing we're at the top of it.

John Warren, racing manager to the Queen, owner of Tactical
Tactical is in tremendous form at home and we're expecting him to run well, subject to how much rain we get.

Michael Bell, trainer of The Lir Jet
He seems in very good form and the rain is welcome because we think that he, like a lot of that sire line, would appreciate a bit of cut. It looks a very warm running but we're very happy with our horse.
Reporting by David Carr

Read a selection of our Saturday previews . . .

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Members' Club: Saturday Jury – he's a star: Sean Levey expecting fireworks from Middle Park runner

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Graeme Rodway on a Royal Lodge packed full of quality

'This has been the plan since midsummer': trainer quotes for the Cambridgeshire

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