'A stiff five furlongs could suit him best' - insight and analysis as speedsters prepare for Coral Charge

The ante-post market for the Coral Charge was so open that the draw was always likely to have an effect on the day-of-race market. It is seen as a major factor in races over Sandown's five-furlong course.

The evidence suggests this is an established angle. Over the last decade low-drawn horses in races with ten runners or more have a notably higher strike-rate. They have gone in 11 per cent of the time, which works out at 19 per cent more than the average. For those who prefer impact values, that translates to an IV of 1.19.

However, unless the ground is quick the market generally allows for this bias. Away from extremes of going, comparing actual winners with the amount of winners expected from SPs shows similar performance across all portions of the draw. In other words King's Stand third Annaf, drawn in 11 of 11, is likely to drift and that would be justified. 

Marshman will break from stall three with Ryan Moore aboard, and he needs to improve having finished behind Annaf in the King's Stand. As a three-year-old who has recently been established as a five-furlong sprinter, that is a live possibility. However, whether it gives him a favourite's chance is debatable.

For one thing, Marshman is not the only horse with potential at five furlongs. Diligent Harry continually shapes as though dropping back from six will do him good. Whether he needs the all-weather or will always be held back by quirks are points to consider. Yet he remains something of an undelivered talent and looks underestimated by the early odds. Given he is drawn in six, it seems unlikely he will be overbet between now and race time.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

William Haggas, trainer of Tiber Flow
I want to try him over five furlongs as I thought he was full of speed at Newcastle last week. He was quite keen early and this is the stiffest five furlongs in the country, so we'll give it a go.

Mick Appleby, trainer of Annaf and Raasel
They should both run well. Annaf ran well at Ascot but he hasn't got the best of draws and that's my concern. Raasel has a good draw and he won this race last year.

Clive Cox, trainer of Diligent Harry and Get Ahead
Diligent Harry has always run as if five furlongs is his best trip and possibly a stiff five like this suits him best. He's been a grand type for us, particularly on the all-weather, and hopefully he can be in at the business end again. Get Ahead has a nice profile for the race and just missed out in a Group 2 in France last time. A stiff five furlongs is agreeable to her but any of the forecast thunderstorms not so.

Stuart Williams, trainer of Existent
He needs to jump out of the stalls better as you can’t give away ground in these top-class sprints. If he exits the stalls like he does at home he would have a chance. He was unlucky in the race last year.

Karl Burke, trainer of Marshman and Lady Hamana
Marshman has been fairly busy but he still looks great. He's a progressive sprinter and I hope he can get his head in front in a Group race. Lady Hamana ran a great race last time and deserves a chance in a Group race. I could see her at least getting a place.
Reporting by David Milnes

Saturday previews:

2.25 Sandown: 'He's on a mark he can win off' - trainer quotes and analysis for ultra-competitive handicap    

2.40 Haydock: Can Mimikyu make it ten Lancashire Oaks wins for the Gosden team?    

3.00 Sandown: 'She has a rock-solid chance' - smart fillies clash in Coral Distaff    

3.15 Haydock: 'He's been crying out for the trip and everything should be perfect' - which trainer is bullish about his chances?    

3.40 Sandown: Paddington v Emily Upjohn: O'Brien and Gosden on their stars as generations clash in 'elite' Coral-Eclipse    

3.55 Saint-Cloud: 'It's a lovely opportunity for him' - Westover bids for second Group 1 win in Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud    

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