Tom Segal questions the value of a few short-priced favourites at Royal Ascot

If you tell a big lie long enough and loud enough, people start to believe it.

Example number one is Cicero's Gift, whose profile in the last few weeks has taken on a life of its own. Amazingly he is now 3-1 to win the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot on the back of success in a conditions race at Goodwood, despite being up against English and Irish 2,000 Guineas winners Chaldean and Paddington.

Of course, there is a chance that the groupthink is correct. Cicero's Gift is certainly a horse of immense promise, but his price is simply a magnification of what the hype machine has been saying and has absolutely nothing to do with what he has achieved on the track.

There is no doubting how good he looked at Goodwood and he could easily be of Group 1 standard, but the form and time simply don't give him any right to be the price he currently is against Chaldean.

Cicero's Gift: 3-1 for the St James's Palace StakesCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Example number two is Born To Rock, who has somehow managed to manoeuvre her way to Queen Mary favouritism. Just like Cicero's Gift it's not her fault that her reputation precedes her, and she could still win the race as she did when easing to victory in her Yarmouth maiden.

However, the time was nothing special and the form could hardly have worked out any worse. The second, third and fourth have all been beaten much further since and Born To Rock is going to face opposition probably five classes better than anything she faced at Yarmouth.

Tahiyra and Little Big Bear are certainly not overhyped and have proven themselves to be top-class, but people are using their ears too much and their eyes not enough when assessing their chances of winning at Royal Ascot.

Tahiyra looked outstanding when winning the Moyglare and certainly went down fighting in the 1,000 Guineas before winning the Irish version at the Curragh – but should she really be odds-on for her rematch with Mawj?

Dermot Weld said she would come on for her Newmarket run, but Topspeed and Racing Post Ratings suggest she didn't when winning at the Curragh, and shouldn't she have been more suited by the soft ground at Newmarket than Mawj?

Born To Rock and connections after winning the 5f fillies' maiden at Yarmouth last month

The disparity in their prices makes absolutely no sense to me, especially as the ground looks like being in Mawj's favour next week.

Finally, what did Little Big Bear actually achieve at Haydock in the Sandy Lane? Yes it showed he was a sprinter and that he had trained on, but in reality he beat one horse due to the massive stands' side bias and on the ratings he achieved about the same if not a little worse than Shaquille did at Newbury the week before.

Throw in Sakheer, Noble Style and Lezoo and all of a sudden his price of 7-4 looks about as appetising as one of the bushtucker trials on I'm A Celebrity.

Top athletes on a different level

My favourite sport when I was growing up my was athletics and it still staggers me that bar the Olympics and, to a lesser extent, the World Championships, no-one in this country really cares that much about it any more.

It just goes to show how lucky we are within horse racing to get the media and television coverage we do because athletics is the true essence of sporting competition, and I am a firm believer that the best athletes, whether they be human or equine, have a fluidity of movement the vast majority of their opponents simply cannot match.

Keely Hodgkinson once again proved herself to be a superstar 800 metre runner in Paris last Friday. Granted luck and the avoidance of injury I think she will become the greatest female British athlete of all time. Her rhythmical running style is totally different and allows her to run fast with seemingly just a modicum of effort. I just think we are scratching the surface of her latent talent.

Similarly, there was a difference about Al Asifah when she ran away with a Listed race at Goodwood on Sunday. Even on that form she is not far behind the likes of Soul Sister and Savethelastdance, but I would back her to beat that pair if they were to ever meet over a mile and half on decent ground.

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