Old-school thinking might be best left in the past when it comes to finding a Classic winner

Chronicling the sport of kings is not without its tribulations. Just when you think concrete patterns are in place to guide you through spring and early summer, the structure collapses like a house of cards.

As much was true this time last year when Auguste Rodin redeemed his shocking 2,000 Guineas effort by winning the Derby. Since the Newmarket Classic is frequently advanced as the best Derby trial, only supreme optimists could have entertained Auguste Rodin. Yet while the colt’s triumph vindicated the esteem in which he was held, his victory still induced a sense of perplexity.

Last year’s Derby preamble was a curious affair altogether. The trials came and went but the only debate in town was whether Auguste Rodin should be forgiven one bad run. And when he answered that question with a resounding 'yes', he bucked a pattern so firmly established that it might have been cast in stone.