Irish Grand National: how to find the winner of the Easter Monday showpiece

The final leg in the triple crown of big spring Nationals, today's Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse (5pm) presents as difficult a puzzle as any. Here are the factors to consider when picking your winner

Front it up

It is a point that has been made in these columns before, but in recent years it has held up especially well in the Irish National.

By backing a horse likely to race in the front rank, you are giving yourself a small but significant advantage.

Irish Grand National card and betting

General Principle raced close up. Our Duke was always there. Rogue Angel made most. Fairyhouse has quite a concentration of fences in the latter stages, which seems to make gaining ground an energy-expensive strategy.

Go with the unexposed

The Grand National itself is top-loaded with Gold Cup-standard horses, but the Irish equivalent remains more of a true handicap and as such, winners off featherweights are by no means a distance memory. Indeed, last year's winner General Principle carried just 10st.

With the exception of Our Duke in 2017, who was a Gold Cup horse in disguise, every winner since Commanche Court (again, subsequently second in a Gold Cup) in 2000 have carried less than 11st.

If you're backing one under a big weight, you'd better be sure they have class to spare.

Plodding is not a prerequisite

Being a significantly shorter race than either the Aintree or Scottish Grand Nationals, stamina evidently does not play quite as strong a role at Fairyhouse.

That plays out in the profile among winners. Our Duke was having just his second run at 3m+, General Principle had only previously run beyond 3m when fifth in the previous season's renewal, Thunder And Roses and Shutthefrontdoor had both stepped up to marathon trips only at the same spring's Cheltenham Festival.

From Arkle to Desert Orchid: the ten best winners of the Irish Grand National

You are not looking for plodders in the Irish National, but a horse who has tried further than 3m and looks likely to relish the test is important.

Conclusion

An unexposed, prominent-racing horse with the promise for marathon trips leads to a few paths, perhaps the most appealing of which is Shady Operator at the foot of the weights. If he can keep the mistakes down, he should go well.

There have been ten different winning trainers in the last ten editions of this race and Joseph O'Brien could extend that trend, one that doesn't sit easily with the way the race is framed these days being dominated numerically by the big two yards.

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