An Ebor certainty or blowout? Pros and cons for Sweet William ahead of the big York handicap

Sweet William has been all the rage for the Ebor since his win at Glorious Goodwood and is set to go off the clear favourite for York's prestigious handicap on Saturday (3.35).

However, it is unlikely to be all smooth sailing and we have assessed the positives and negatives about his chances.

Positives

Follows a well-trodden path for his team

Joint-trainers John and Thady Gosden have used a familiar route to York with Sweet William. 

Their 2022 winner Trawlerman scored in the Summer Handicap at Glorious Goodwood before completing a big summer meeting double at York in remarkable fashion, racing wide early on before narrowly getting up under a fine Frankie Dettori ride.

The Gosdens have plotted the same path with their next Ebor hope off the rank, and Sweet William ticked the first part of the double off in brilliant fashion when defying the testing ground at Goodwood this month.

The Gosdens know how to train an Ebor winner

Trawlerman's success last year meant the Clarehaven yard has been responsible for two of the last five winners of the Ebor. 

Classy stayer Muntahaa struck in 2018 under Jim Crowley, when he led home a 1-2 for John Gosden ahead of stablemate Weekender. Sweet William will be the only runner for the Gosdens this time.

The distance will be no issue

The stamina-sapping 1m6f trip will be no problem for the four-year-old, who already has winning form over the distance and further. 

Sweet William's recent hat-trick of wins started over 1m4f at Doncaster before he scored over 2m½f in an ultra-competitive handicap at Newbury before his Summer Handicap success over 1m6f at Goodwood.

Seven of the last ten winners already had winning form over 1m6f or further so stamina will not be a problem for Sweet William.

He could be perfectly weighted

Sweet William will carry 9st 2lb and that could prove crucial to his chances.

Seven of the last ten winners have been between 9st and 9st 5lb, while no winner in that time has carried more than 9st 9lb.

Sweet William's stablemate Trawlerman carried just 1lb more in the weights when scoring off 9st 3lb last year.

Trawlerman (left) wins last year's Ebor for the GosdensCredit: John Grossick

Negatives

His age

While the last two winners have been four-year-olds, that age group does not have a strong record in the last ten years.

Before Sonnyboyliston struck in 2021, there had been an eight-year wait for a winner from that age group. Tiger Cliff was the previous one with his thrilling success in 2013.

Connections of Sweet William will be hoping the recent four-year-old run continues rather than reverting to old trends.

His draw

Recent history shows it helps to be drawn high to win the Ebor and the stall Sweet William was given on Thursday morning did not work in his favour.

Just two winners in the last decade have won from a single-figure draw – 2019 winner Mustajeer (2) and 2015 victor Litigant (6). 

Trawlerman came from stall 20 last year, but Sweet William has been handed stall three. 

His price

He has been the punters' pick for a long time, but favourites have had a wretched record in the last decade, with Fujaira Prince the only one to oblige in 2020. Trawlerman (2022), Heartbreak City (2016) and Tiger Cliff (2013) were the other single-figure price winners.

Given his nearest rival is 7-1 shot Absurde, 4-1 market leader Sweet William has this stat against him.

Read this next:

Confirmed runners and riders for the Sky Bet Ebor at York - plus Saturday's other big races 

Sign up to receive On The Nose, our essential daily newsletter, from the Racing Post. Your unmissable morning feed, direct to your email inbox every morning.