Who will win the 2023 Pertemps Network July Cup based on previous trends?

Harry Angel: one of four three-year-olds to have won the July Cup in the last ten runningsCredit: Alan Crowhurst

The Pertemps Network July Cup (4.35 Newmarket) is the feature race on Saturday, televised on ITV and Racing TV. The Group 1 sprint is worth £628,500 and promises to be a cracker. Here we take a look at the trends in the last ten years to try to help pick the winner . . .

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Rating

Eight of the last ten winners had an adjusted Racing Post Rating of at least 128. Only three of the 14 remaining entries fit this criteria – Commonwealth Cup hero Shaquille, Duke of York scorer Azure Blue and two-time top-level winner Kinross.

A sprinter with a RPR within 3lb of the top-rated contender has been successful eight times since 2013 and that trend brings Commonwealth Cup second Little Big Bear and Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee winner Khaadem into the equation.

Form

The last ten winners had been successful in Group company and they had all won over this 6f trip. Seven of those winners had ran at Royal Ascot the previous month.

Only five of the last ten winners scored on their previous start, so a recent victory has not proved crucial to landing this Group 1. Art Power and Cold Case are two outsiders who failed to fire last time, while Kinross was only seventh on his return in the Jubilee.

Age

There has been little to split the three and four-year-olds in this race in the last decade, with four three-year-olds and five four-year-olds winning.

The successful three-year-olds had form figures of 124 in the Commonwealth Cup on their previous start, with Muhaarar completing the big-sprint double in 2015, while four-year-olds have been successful in the past three runnings.

The trends suggest it could be tough for six-year-olds Art Power, Brad The Brief and Kinross, as well as seven-year-old Emaraaty Ana, with Les Arcs the last horse to win at six in 2006.

Sex

Alcohol Free was the only successful filly in the past ten years when defying 14-1 odds. Just two fillies have been sent off single-figure prices in that period, with 7-1 shot Quiet Reflection finishing third in 2016 and 8-1 chance Pretty Pollyana finishing fourth in 2019, one place behind fellow filly Fairyland.

Five of the remaining entries are fillies or mares – Azure Blue, Lezoo, Meditate, Royal Aclaim and Vadream.

Verdict

The required Racing Post Rating to win this race eliminates many of the entries, and with Kinross looking to face a stiff task given his age, preference is for Shaquille.

He defied a notably slow start to post a career-best victory at Royal Ascot and three of the last ten July Cup winners came from the Commonwealth Cup. Cold Case appeals as an each-way contender at bigger odds. He didn't give his true running in the Sandy Lane at Haydock but is capable of much better having beaten King's Stand winner Bradsell on his reappearance at Ascot.