Aintree Bowl contenders: assessing the stellar field for Thursday’s big race

The Alder Hey Aintree Bowl Chase (2.55) takes place on Thursday and a superb cast of five have been declared for the Grade 1 contest. Here we run through the field, identifying their strengths and weaknesses and providing a verdict on who will come out on top . . . 

Shishkin

Form: 1P-312

Strengths: Gained the fifth Grade 1 of his career when landing the Ascot Chase in February, that victory confirming his stamina for 2m5f and acting as a confidence boost after a couple of lesser efforts.

Success in the 2021 Maghull Novices’ Chase shows an ability to act on this track.  

Caught the eye when a staying-on second in the Ryanair last month, a performance that indicated he would be well worth trying over this trip.

Weaknesses: Made a notable error three out in the Ryanair and some poor jumps cost him in the Tingle Creek earlier this season. Stepping up in trip requires even more fences to be navigated.

Odds: 3-1

What they say: Nico de Boinville, jockey (after finishing second in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham, March 16)

“All credit to the horse – he's very genuine. He made an error down the hill and managed to get back into second. He had every right to be pulled up or tailed off – he's very genuine and we know what he can do on his good days. There will be plenty more days to come.”

Shishkin14:55 Aintree

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Jky: Nico de Boinville Tnr: Nicky Henderson

Shishkin: impressive winner of the Ascot ChaseCredit: Alan Crowhurst

A Plus Tard

Form: 121-PP

Strengths: Wide-margin 2022 Gold Cup winner, and he remains the highest-rated runner in this field (175) despite an underwhelming season where he’s failed to finish in both starts.

Still appeared to be travelling with plenty of purpose in the Gold Cup before being badly hampered by two fallers. His chance all but ended there and he wasn’t given a hard time afterwards, so comes into this contest relatively fresh.

Weaknesses: His wellbeing is difficult to gauge after two pulled up efforts, while his season has been stop-start, missing the Savills Chase due to a knocked joint.

Slight concern over the form of his stable. They are 0-22 with their runners this month prior to Wednesday's runner, despite 13 of those horses sent off a single-figure SP.

Odds: 7-2

What they say: Henry de Bromhead, trainer (after pulled up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, March 17)

“I thought A Plus Tard was very unlucky. He had to jump two horses sadly and that was it. Rachael said she was really happy with him at the time, tracking Paul, and all was good. But it's the luck of the draw. I'm happy. He looks back now and it was just unlucky."

A Plus Tard14:55 Aintree

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Jky: Rachael Blackmore Tnr: Henry De Bromhead

A Plus Tard: 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup winnerCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Conflated

Form: F2-313

Strengths: Has not finished out of the first four in 13 completed chase starts and his career-best Racing Post Rating (172) was recorded when runner-up to Clan Des Obeaux in this race last year.  

Excellent third under replacement rider Sam Ewing in the Gold Cup last time. That is a far better preparation than he had last year, when he came into the Bowl on the back of a fall in the Ryanair. 

Weaknesses: Could not get the job done in a seemingly weaker race 12 months ago, and will need another career-best to win if the big guns bring their A-game.

Has six and a half lengths to find with Bravemansgame on their Gold Cup running.

Odds: 5-1

What they say: Gordon Elliott, trainer (after finishing third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, March 17)

“I thought Conflated ran a great race and Sam Ewing gave him a great ride. He got into a lovely rhythm and it looked like a proper race. I'm looking forward to seeing it again. They went an end-to-end gallop and our horse ran his heart out. I was delighted with his performance.”

Conflated14:55 Aintree

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Jky: Keith Donoghue Tnr: Gordon Elliott

Conflated: finished second in the Bowl last yearCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Ahoy Senor

Form: -5351F

Strengths: A real specialist at this meeting, supplementing his 66-1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle success when claiming the Mildmay Novices' Chase last year; Bravemansgame behind on both occasions.

Successful in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in January and was in the process of running a big race in last month’s Gold Cup prior to a 17th fence fall.

Weaknesses: Coming into this race on the back of a fall is not ideal, and that’s not the first time his jumping has let him down over fences.

Odds: 11-2

What they say: Lucinda Russell, trainer (after falling in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, March 17)

“It's funny because he probably jumped the best he ever has done and yet he made a mistake and fell. In other races, he's made mistakes all the way round and not fallen. We've got a lovely horse, and although it was too early to say what would have happened, he was certainly enjoying himself in front. He was definitely travelling nicely and going well within himself.”

Ahoy Senor14:55 Aintree

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Jky: Brian Hughes Tnr: Lucinda Russell

Ahoy Senor: bidding for a hat-trick of wins at this meetingCredit: Edward Whitaker

Ga Law

Form: 2/31F5

Strengths: Progressive since returning from a 603-day absence, claiming the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham earlier this season; form franked.

Unexposed over staying distances and shaped as though well worth a try at 3m1f when staying on for fifth in the Ryanair Chase last time.

Weaknesses: Didn’t jump fluently at Cheltenham and had fallen on his previous start, so errors are becoming more prevalent.

An official rating of 153 leaves him with plenty to find on these terms.

Odds: 50-1

What they say: Jamie Snowden, trainer (after winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham, November 12)

“When Ga Law got injured during his novice season, I said to the team not to worry because we'll win the 2022 Paddy Power Gold Cup. It's one thing to say it and another to get him back from injury. We knew off a mark of 142 we had to have a go at this. He's not the finished article. He showed a bit of inexperience and there's things to brush up on. Who knows how good he can be? There's no set plan but he will step up in trip.”

Ga Law14:55 Aintree

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Jky: Jonathan Burke Tnr: Jamie Snowden

Verdict

Bravemansgame was the one to beat on the back of his fine Gold Cup showing, but he was declared a non-runner on Wednesday night. Preference goes to Shishkin, who did remarkably well to finish second in the Ryanair Chase after trying to take the third-last fence home with him. That run gave a strong indication the nine-year-old would appreciate stepping up to this trip, and if back to somewhere near his Ascot Chase form, he should be too good for these rivals.

Shishkin14:55 Aintree

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Jky: Nico de Boinville Tnr: Nicky Henderson

Alder Hey Aintree Bowl Chase (2.55 Aintree, Thursday, April 13)

William Hill: 3 Shishkin, 7-2 A Plus Tard, 5 Conflated, 11-2 Ahoy Senor, 50 Ga Law

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