Paul Kealy's play of the day at Sandown

Thunder Wonder

1.50 Sandown

The bet365 Esher Cup Handicap at Sandown has long been a decent race, but it's surprising just how often it is won by a runner who doesn't turn out to be the best in the long run.

You might argue that wasn't the case last year as winner Hand Of God went on to take the Golden Gates at Royal Ascot and is now 14lb higher, but third-placed Royal Supremacy subsequently rose 22lb in the ratings.

Blue Trail, the 2022 third, went up 10lb more than the winner (Wanees), while Migration managed to get beaten off a mark of 82 in 2019 (had a peak mark of 113), and in 2018 third-placed Kings Shield was beaten five lengths into third and then managed to finish closer to the winner in the French Guineas (just over three lengths) on his next start.

Fitness at this time of year is as important as anything, although only two of this field are making seasonal returns, and it's simply a case that horses improve at different rates.

There is one who is officially well in, though, and the Charlie Johnston-trained Thunder Wonder looks fairly enough priced for an interest at around 7-2 following his runaway success in the Royal Mile at Musselburgh just six days ago.

The handicapper put him up 10lb for that, but he has only a 6lb penalty to carry. Whether he'll get the run of the race like at Musselburgh, where he controlled things from the front, is another matter, but he pulled right away in the final furlong and is clearly improving at a rate of knots.

He would probably be a shorter price were it not for the fact that two horses to have finished ahead of him already this season and both are in the field, namely Dividend and Tilted Kilt, who were first and second when Thunder Wonder was third at Southwell just under three weeks ago.

As things stand their best form is considerably better on the all-weather (although Dividend has scored here), and Thunder Wonder clearly improved a great deal last week.

The last runner for the Johnston yard in this race was Namoos, who had also won the Royal Mile at Musselburgh, and he came here after a 7lb rise and scooted up by six lengths in 2021.

Thunder Wonder13:50 Sandown

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Jky: Joe Fanning Tnr: Charlie Johnston

Racing Post+ subscribers can read more of Paul Kealy's tipping here:

Paul Kealy's top tips on Friday - including one who 'could make their mark in Group 1 company this season'   

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